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SAICScience Applications InternatioSell5.7·$109.30-3.97%
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Science Applications Internatio (SAIC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Sell if holding. At $109.30, A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (98.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (52.0%).

Science Applications International Corporation provides technical, engineering, and IT services primarily to U.S. government agencies across defense, intelligence, and civilian sectors, operating through ~1,700 active contracts with approximately 23,000 employees. Revenue is... Read more

$109.30+10.7% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#10 of 34 Information Technology Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.69%
IncomeYield1.30%(5y avg 1.42%)Payout16.65%sustainable
Stop $101.64Target $120.94(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$121.90+11.5%10 analysts
$120.94our TP
$109.30price
$121.90mean
$96
$137

Sell if holding. At $109.30, A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (98.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (52.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Sep 3, 202680d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (98.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (52.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.8
P/E (Fwd)10.3
Mkt Cap$4.8B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn5.6%
ROE27.7%
Rev Growth1.5%
Beta0.29
Dividend1.30%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.63bullish
IV73%elevated
Max Pain$60-45.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. government98%
    10-K Item 1: '98% of our total revenues were attributable to prime contracts with the U.S. government or to subcontracts with other contractors engaged in work for the U.S. government'
  • HIGHCustomerDepartment of War52%
    10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal 2026, 2025 and 2024, approximately 52% of our total revenues were attributable to the "Department of War"'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-09Item 5.02LOW
    Paul Eremenko and Admiral Michael Rogers (USN Ret.) appointed to SAIC Board of Directors effective April 8, 2026, expanding Board from 11 to 13 members. Both joined Audit and Technology Committees.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02MEDIUM
    James C. Reagan formally appointed permanent CEO effective February 17, 2026. Reagan had served as Interim CEO since October 23, 2025 and previously as EVP/CFO of Leidos Holdings. Successor in place; transition from interim to permanent.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.7
Quality Rank
5.3
Value Rank
6.9
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $92.03Resistance $123.41

Price Targets

$102
$121
A.Upside+10.6%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-03 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAIC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $109.30, A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (98.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (52.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $101.64. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SAIC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $120.94 (+10.7% upside). Prior stop was $101.64. Stop-loss: $101.64.

What are the risks of investing in SAIC?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (98.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Department of War (52.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is SAIC overvalued or undervalued?

Science Applications Internatio trades at a P/E of 12.8 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SAIC?

17 analysts cover SAIC with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $122.

What does Science Applications Internatio do?Science Applications International Corporation provides technical, engineering, and IT services primarily to U.S....

Science Applications International Corporation provides technical, engineering, and IT services primarily to U.S. government agencies across defense, intelligence, and civilian sectors, operating through ~1,700 active contracts with approximately 23,000 employees. Revenue is earned from government contracts (cost-reimbursable, T&M, and FFP), with 98% from U.S. government work across the last three fiscal years.

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