RLI Corp. (RLI) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $52.16 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida, California, Texas, New York (56.0%).
RLI Corp. underwrites specialty property, casualty, and surety insurance through RLI Ins., Mt. Hawley, and CBIC subsidiaries in the U.S.; $1,614M net premiums earned in 2025 (casualty 60%, property 31%, surety 9%). Revenue comes from specialty admitted and excess/surplus lines... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $52.16 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida, California, Texas, New York (56.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicFlorida, California, Texas, New York56%10-K Item 1A: '56 percent of our direct premiums earned were generated in four states in 2025: Florida – 18 percent; California – 18 percent; Texas – 11 percent; and New York – 9 percent'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $52.16 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida, California, Texas, New York (56.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $49.32. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $58.57 (+12.3% upside). Prior stop was $49.32. Stop-loss: $49.32.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida, California, Texas, New York (56.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.7/10.
RLI Corp. trades at a P/E of 12.1 (forward 18.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover RLI with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $58.
What does RLI Corp. do?RLI Corp. underwrites specialty property, casualty, and surety insurance through RLI Ins., Mt. Hawley, and CBIC...
RLI Corp. underwrites specialty property, casualty, and surety insurance through RLI Ins., Mt. Hawley, and CBIC subsidiaries in the U.S.; $1,614M net premiums earned in 2025 (casualty 60%, property 31%, surety 9%). Revenue comes from specialty admitted and excess/surplus lines markets; 56% of direct premiums earned are concentrated in four states (Florida 18%, California 18%, Texas 11%, New York 9%). Top-10 producers generated 49% of gross premiums written.