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PUMPProPetro Holding Corp.Sell4.6·$7.76
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

ProPetro Holding operates with near-zero gross margins, -25% declining revenue, and a business quality score of 1.8/10, placing it well below the investable quality threshold, while an extreme put/call ratio of 450.50 signals severe options market concern about near-term downside.

Thesis pillars

  • Revenue Decline Quality Crisis→Stable
  • Extreme Put Call Ratio↓Deteriorating
  • Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthShortModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.76: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 6.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

ProPetro provides hydraulic fracturing, wireline, cementing, and power generation services to E&P companies concentrated in the Permian Basin. Revenue comes from completion services billed to upstream operators; the top five customers (ExxonMobil at 24.9%, Occidental at 13.7%,... Read more

$7.76+75.9% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#32 of 34 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-5.04%
Stop $7.22Analyst target $13.65(−13% haircut)A.R:R 6.5:1
Analyst consensus$15.69+102.2%13 analysts
$13.65Analyst target
$7.76price
$15.69mean
$21

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.76: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 6.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29

Recent Developments — ProPetro Holding Corp.

Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:40Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 2026Date unconfirmed· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)32.7
Mkt Cap$953M
EV/EBITDA6.6
Profit Mgn-1.2%
ROE-1.5%
Rev Growth-6.2%
Beta0.88
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV67%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -6.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.0
Declining revenue: -6%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
0.5
Moat
2.5
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
8.9
Cash-burning: FCF -4% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.6
Quality Rank
1.2
Value Rank
8.5
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.4>=5.5A.R:R 6.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
27 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $7.01Resistance $9.86

Price Targets

$7
$14
A.Upside+75.9%
A.R:R6.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (Date unconfirmed)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PUMP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.76: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 6.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $7.22. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PUMP stock price target?

Analyst target: $13.65 (+75.9% upside). Prior stop was $7.22. Stop-loss: $7.22.

What are the risks of investing in PUMP?

Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).

Is PUMP overvalued or undervalued?

ProPetro Holding Corp. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 32.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PUMP?

20 analysts cover PUMP with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $16.

What does ProPetro Holding Corp. do?ProPetro provides hydraulic fracturing, wireline, cementing, and power generation services to E&P companies...

ProPetro provides hydraulic fracturing, wireline, cementing, and power generation services to E&P companies concentrated in the Permian Basin. Revenue comes from completion services billed to upstream operators; the top five customers (ExxonMobil at 24.9%, Occidental at 13.7%, EOG at 12.1%) accounted for 68.2% of 2025 revenue.

Related stocks: FLOC (Flowco Holdings Inc.) · NESR (National Energy Services Reunit) · NGS (Natural Gas Services Group, Inc) · EROK (EagleRock Land, LLC) · FTK (Flotek Industries, Inc.)
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