Personalis has already reached its analyst target with implied downside, quality metrics sit well below the engine's floor amid cash burn and declining revenue, and insiders have been steady net sellers — a stack of bearish signals despite a short-term overbought bounce.
Thesis pillars
- Analyst Target Already Reached↑Improving
- Quality Cash Burn Below Floor→Stable
- Declining Revenue Trend→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Personalis, Inc. (PSNL) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.
Personalis develops and sells cancer genomic testing services, including its NeXT Personal Dx liquid biopsy test for detecting minimal residual disease, serving pharmaceutical companies, diagnostics firms, and cancer patients from its CLIA-certified Fremont, California... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Personalis, Inc.
About Personalis, Inc.
Personalis derives 90% of its revenue from the United States, with Europe and the rest of the world contributing 9% and 1%, respectively, for the year ended December 31, 2025. Its flagship NeXT Personal Dx liquid biopsy test, introduced in the fourth quarter of 2023, detects minimal residual disease and cancer recurrence, while two customers — Moderna and the VA MVP population-sequencing program — accounted for 22% and 17% of 2025 revenue.
Personalis sells testing services to pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical companies for clinical trials and biomarker discovery, to diagnostics companies for whole exome sequencing, and directly to cancer patients through physicians, with Moderna, the VA MVP, and Natera together making up the largest named customers. The company's top five customers accounted for 62% of 2025 revenue, down from 81% in 2024, as the Natera relationship — once 30% of revenue in 2024 — fell to 8% in 2025 after the companies' MRD-testing partnership wound down. On the supply side, Personalis relies on Illumina as the sole supplier of the sequencers, reagents, and maintenance services its CLIA-certified Fremont, California laboratory needs to run every test. Commercial reach also depends on a 2023 co-commercialization agreement with Tempus, expanded in 2024 and again in July 2025 to cover biopharma customers and colorectal cancer, extending the partnership's term through November 2029.
Show full overview
Personalis' laboratory operations run through a single point of failure: Illumina is the sole supplier of the sequencers, reagents, and maintenance services the Fremont lab needs, so any disruption to that relationship could halt testing capacity outright. That supply dependency compounds a customer-side risk the 10-K quantifies directly: Moderna and the VA MVP alone provided 39% of 2025 revenue, and the VA MVP's annual contracted orders have already fallen from $30.9 million in September 2020 to $10.0 million or less in most subsequent years, a decline the company attributes partly to federal cost-cutting and pandemic-era disruptions to veteran enrollment.
See also: Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research
From Personalis, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Personalis, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Personalis to Present NeXT Personal® Data at ESMO 2026 — fiscal.ai Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Personalis Brings Resistance Mutation Tracking to NeXT Personal® MRD Test — fiscal.ai Oct 20, 2026 positive
- NEWS Tempus AI Doubles Down On Moderna and Merck Cancer Vaccine Infrastructure — benzinga Oct 7, 2026 neutral
- NEWS This Gentex Analyst Turns Bearish; Here Are Top 5 Downgrades For Tuesday — benzinga Oct 6, 2026 neutral
- NEWS BTIG Downgrades Personalis to Neutral — benzinga Oct 6, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierIllumina10-K Item 1: 'we rely on Illumina as the sole supplier of sequencers and various associated reagents, and as the sole provider of maintenance and repair services for these sequencers'
- HIGHCustomertop five customers62%10-K Item 1A: 'Our top five customers, including Moderna, the VA MVP and Natera, accounted for 62% and 81% of our revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
- LOWCustomerModerna22%10-K Item 1A: 'Moderna, which accounted for 22% and 28% of our revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
- LOWCustomerVA MVP17%10-K Item 1A: 'the VA MVP, which accounted for 17% and 9% of our revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
- LOWCustomerNatera8.0%10-K Item 1A: 'Natera, which accounted for 8% and 30% of our revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
- HIGHGeographicUnited States90%10-K Item 1: 'the United States, Europe (including the U.K.), and rest of the world...accounted for 90%, 9%, and 1%, respectively, of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -153.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $15.42. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $12.89 reached (−19.4% from $16.00); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $15.42. Stop-loss: $15.42.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina; Concentration risk — Customer: top five customers (62.0%); Target reached (-19.4% upside).
Personalis, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -16.6). TrendMatrix value score: 1.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover PSNL with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $15.
What does Personalis, Inc. do?Personalis develops and sells cancer genomic testing services, including its NeXT Personal Dx liquid biopsy test for...
Personalis develops and sells cancer genomic testing services, including its NeXT Personal Dx liquid biopsy test for detecting minimal residual disease, serving pharmaceutical companies, diagnostics firms, and cancer patients from its CLIA-certified Fremont, California laboratory. Moderna and the VA MVP population-sequencing program accounted for 22% and 17% of 2025 revenue, respectively, with the top five customers together representing 62%, and 90% of revenue came from the United States.