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PBTPermian Basin Royalty TrustBuy Wait6.1·$33.40
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Permian Basin Royalty Trust exhibits compounder-like quality metrics but trades at an expensive growth-adjusted valuation with a currently weak-but-potentially-temporary momentum reading, and carries an unresolved yield-trap warning on its distribution.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Royalty Trust Fundamentals→Stable
  • Temporary Headwind Quality Momentum Mismatch→Stable
  • Expensive Valuation Relative To Growth→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 27, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Wait for pullback to $31.88. BUY gates pass at $33.40, but concentration risk — Counterparty: Blackbeard Operating, LLC and concentration risk — Geographic: Texas / Permian Basin argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $31.88 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Permian Basin Royalty Trust is a Texas express trust holding net overriding royalty interests carved from oil and gas properties in the Permian Basin, including a 75% interest in the Waddell Ranch properties in Crane County, Texas and a 95% interest in other Texas royalty... Read more

$33.40+11.0% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#26 of 46 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield1.62%(5y avg 2.57%)Payout98.76%at-risk
Entry $31.88(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $29.80Target $35.38(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Wait for pullback to $31.88. BUY gates pass at $33.40, but concentration risk — Counterparty: Blackbeard Operating, LLC and concentration risk — Geographic: Texas / Permian Basin argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $31.88 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 6.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Permian Basin Royalty Trust

About Permian Basin Royalty Trust

Permian Basin Royalty Trust holds a 75% net overriding royalty interest in the Waddell Ranch properties in Crane County, Texas and a 95% net overriding royalty interest in other Texas royalty properties, conveyed by Southland Royalty Company in 1980. As of March 16, 2026, oil traded at $93.39 per barrel and natural gas at $3.03 per MMBtu, prices that directly drive the Trust's monthly distributions to Unit holders since the Trust has no operations, employees, or ability to influence production decisions on the Underlying Properties.

The Trust earns royalty income as the excess of gross proceeds from oil and gas sales over production costs on the Underlying Properties, with Blackbeard Operating, LLC serving as the sole operator of the Waddell Ranch properties since April 2020 and reporting net proceeds to the Trustee, Argent Trust Company, one month in arrears since May 2024. Because the Trust holds a net overriding royalty interest rather than a working interest, it bears no direct production costs or liabilities, but distributions decline dollar-for-dollar as gross proceeds fall or production and development costs, such as electricity used to run field equipment, rise. The Trust does not lend money, borrow, or hedge its commodity exposure, leaving Unit holders fully exposed to spot oil and gas price movements.

Show full overview

Permian Basin Royalty Trust's income depends entirely on a single named operator, Blackbeard Operating, LLC, for the Waddell Ranch properties; Blackbeard has refused to provide the Trustee with its future development plans, and neither the Trustee nor Unit holders have any right to replace it, a dependency the Trust discloses could allow the pace of drilling and processing-facility investment to fall below what a more forthcoming operator would pursue. Separately, a Unit holder, SoftVest, L.P., has a pending Tarrant County, Texas lawsuit seeking to eliminate the Trust indenture's supermajority voting requirements, which SoftVest has said it would use to convert the Trust into a taxable corporation or LLC, a restructuring that could increase costs and change the Trust's federal income tax treatment for existing Unit holders.

See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

From Permian Basin Royalty Trust's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 12, 2026Date unconfirmed· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=9.2 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Blackbeard Operating, LLC
Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas / Permian Basin
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)95.4
P/E (Fwd)—
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn91.6%
ROE9976.6%
Rev Growth34.4%
Beta0.56
Dividend1.62%
Rating analysts—

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.87neutral
IV49%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyBlackbeard Operating, LLC
    10-K Item 1A: 'Blackbeard is currently the operator of record of the Waddell Ranch overriding royalty interests'
  • HIGHGeographicTexas / Permian Basin
    10-K Item 1: 'a 95% net overriding royalty interest carved out of that company's major producing royalty properties in Texas'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.2
Peg Ratio
4.9
PEG: 1.55
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Dividend Safety
2.0
Surprise Avg
2.2
Earnings History
3.3
News Activity
5.0
GatesA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 5.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $30.72Resistance $36.10

Price Targets

$30
$32
$35
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts0
Consensus—
Avg Target—

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-12 (Date unconfirmed)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PBT stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $31.88. BUY gates pass at $33.40, but concentration risk — Counterparty: Blackbeard Operating, LLC and concentration risk — Geographic: Texas / Permian Basin argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $31.88 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $35.38 (+5.9%), stop $29.80 (−12.1%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 6.1/10, high confidence.

What is the PBT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $35.38 (+11.0% upside). Target $35.38 (+5.9%), stop $29.80 (−12.1%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $29.80.

What are the risks of investing in PBT?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Blackbeard Operating, LLC; Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas / Permian Basin; Expensive valuation.

Is PBT overvalued or undervalued?

Permian Basin Royalty Trust trades at a P/E of 95.4 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

0
What does Permian Basin Royalty Trust do?Permian Basin Royalty Trust is a Texas express trust holding net overriding royalty interests carved from oil and gas...

Permian Basin Royalty Trust is a Texas express trust holding net overriding royalty interests carved from oil and gas properties in the Permian Basin, including a 75% interest in the Waddell Ranch properties in Crane County, Texas and a 95% interest in other Texas royalty properties. The Trust collects royalty income and distributes it monthly to Unit holders, with no employees and no operating control over the underlying properties. Blackbeard Operating, LLC has been the sole operator of the Waddell Ranch properties since April 2020, and Argent Trust Company serves as the Trust's current trus

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