Old Second Bancorp is a profitable regional bank in a strong technical breakout with attractive valuation at 9.6x forward earnings, but the stock has run past its analyst target and the risk-reward at current levels is unfavorable with negative implied upside.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Attractive Valuation Forward Pe↑Improving
- Breakout Technical Strength→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (OSBC) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. At $24.41, A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Single-region cliff: 67% exposure to Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana (66.8%).
Old Second Bancorp is the Aurora, Illinois-based holding company for Old Second National Bank, which operates 55 banking centers across seven counties in the Chicago metropolitan area, offering community banking, commercial and consumer lending, and trust and wealth management... Read more
Sell if holding. At $24.41, A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Single-region cliff: 67% exposure to Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana (66.8%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 3/8 gates (earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.
About Old Second Bancorp, Inc.
About Old Second Bancorp, Inc.
Old Second Bancorp's loan portfolio grew by $1.27 billion in 2025 to reflect the $1.20 billion in loans acquired in its July 2025 merger with Bancorp Financial, parent of Evergreen Bank Group, expanding the community bank beyond its home base of 55 banking centers across Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Kane, Kendall, LaSalle, and Will counties in Illinois. Commercial real estate loans made up 36.5% of the total loan portfolio at year-end 2025, down from 44.3% in 2024 as the Evergreen acquisition added consumer and powersport lending. The bank's primary regulator is the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
Old Second earns net interest income from commercial, residential, and consumer lending, with commercial loans, including sponsor finance and healthcare lending, growing to $842.1 million in 2025 from $800.5 million in 2024, alongside $2.29 billion in wealth management assets under administration that generate fee income. The Evergreen acquisition added a nationwide powersport lending business, financing motorcycles, ATVs, UTVs, snowmobiles, and personal watercraft through third-party dealers, which represented 13.3% of the loan portfolio at year-end 2025 versus none in 2024; these loans carry shorter terms and higher yields but a higher risk of default than the bank's other consumer lending. Residential mortgages are sold primarily to Fannie Mae (67.6% of loans sold in 2025) and Freddie Mac (19.9%), with servicing retained on both.
Show full overview
Old Second's commercial real estate book, while diversified across investor, retail, industrial, office, and hotel property types, remains geographically concentrated: 66.8% of the $1.92 billion CRE portfolio at December 31, 2025 was secured by property in Illinois, Wisconsin, or Indiana, and outstanding CRE loans and commitments equaled approximately 220.3% of Tier 1 capital plus the allowance for credit losses, down from 273.3% a year earlier. The bank's primary regulator has signaled increased scrutiny of commercial real estate concentrations industry-wide, which could require enhanced underwriting or higher capital levels if exposure grows.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Old Second Bancorp, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Old Second Bancorp, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Old Second Bancorp (OSBC) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Old Second Bancorp (NASDAQ:OSBC) Beats Q2 CY2026 Sales Expectations - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS Earnings Flash (OSBC) Old Second Bancorp, Inc. Reports Q2 Revenue $96.6M, Vs. FactSet Est of $94.9M - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
- NEWS Old Second Bancorp: Q2 Earnings Snapshot - WKYC — WKYC neutral
- NEWS Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:OSBC) Announces Quarterly Dividend of $0.07 - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:25Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans37%10-K Item 1: 'commercial real estate loans represented approximately 36.5% (44.3% at year-end 2024) of our loan portfolio'
- HIGHGeographicIllinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana67%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 66.8% of our commercial real estate portfolio was secured by property located in Illinois, Wisconsin or Indiana'
- LOWloan_portfoliopowersport loans13%10-K Item 1: 'powersport loans represented approximately 13.3% (0.0% at year-end 2024)'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-09Item 5.02MEDIUMDirector Dennis Klaeser resigned from Old Second Bancorp's Board and its Bank subsidiary board effective June 5, 2026, after 5 years of service on the Executive, Audit, Compensation, Risk, and Capital Committees. The resignation was not the result of any disagreement with the company; the Board will reduce its size by one rather than immediately filling the vacancy.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $24.41, A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Single-region cliff: 67% exposure to Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana (66.8%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $23.29. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $24.36 reached (−0.2% from $24.41); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $23.29. Stop-loss: $23.29.
Single-region cliff: 67% exposure to Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana (66.8%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.4 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover OSBC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $28.
What does Old Second Bancorp, Inc. do?Old Second Bancorp is the Aurora, Illinois-based holding company for Old Second National Bank, which operates 55...
Old Second Bancorp is the Aurora, Illinois-based holding company for Old Second National Bank, which operates 55 banking centers across seven counties in the Chicago metropolitan area, offering community banking, commercial and consumer lending, and trust and wealth management services. The company completed its acquisition of Bancorp Financial (parent of Evergreen Bank Group) in July 2025, adding approximately $1.43 billion in assets and expanding into nationwide powersport, collector car, and manufactured home lending. As of December 31, 2025, commercial real estate loans represented 36.5% o