Value
7.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 8.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.83
- ▸Attractively valued
OSBC · Why this verdict
Why Old Second Bancorp (OSBC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Old Second Bancorp is a profitable regional bank in a strong technical breakout with attractive valuation at 9.6x forward earnings, but the stock has run past its analyst target and the risk-reward at current levels is unfavorable with negative implied upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Old Second Bancorp beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.1%, reflecting steady operational execution in a regional banking environment. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters with positive surprise above 3%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA miss of 4.7% in the most recent quarter ended the streak, and regional bank earnings are highly sensitive to net interest margin compression as rates move. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings of 9.6x and PEG ratio of 0.83 suggest the stock is attractively priced relative to earnings growth for a regional bank with strong margins. Valuation breakdown | Forward price-to-earnings expands toward 12x as earnings grow and the market recognizes the value, implying price appreciation above 20% from current levels. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock has already run 2.9% from its 52-week high and trades above its analyst target, meaning the value the model sees may already be priced in. | ||
A golden cross is in place with the stock above all major moving averages, RSI at 57, MACD bullish, and rising on-balance volume, indicating strong technical momentum. V9 | Price remains above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 months and the golden cross pattern is sustained. | →Stable |
| CounterNear a 52-week high with negative implied upside of 8.3%, the technical breakout may be extended and late-stage with limited room for additional gains. | ||
With the stock trading above its analyst target and 8.3% negative implied upside, the risk-reward is inverted — new position entry at current levels is not supported by the price target framework. Warnings | New analyst targets emerge above $24, restoring at least 10% upside and a favorable risk-reward profile. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRegional bank analyst targets frequently lag actual price action; the stock's strong earnings history may support continued price appreciation above current targets. | ||
Old Second Bancorp beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.1%, reflecting steady operational execution in a regional banking environment.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters with positive surprise above 3%.
CounterA miss of 4.7% in the most recent quarter ended the streak, and regional bank earnings are highly sensitive to net interest margin compression as rates move.
A forward price-to-earnings of 9.6x and PEG ratio of 0.83 suggest the stock is attractively priced relative to earnings growth for a regional bank with strong margins.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward price-to-earnings expands toward 12x as earnings grow and the market recognizes the value, implying price appreciation above 20% from current levels.
CounterThe stock has already run 2.9% from its 52-week high and trades above its analyst target, meaning the value the model sees may already be priced in.
A golden cross is in place with the stock above all major moving averages, RSI at 57, MACD bullish, and rising on-balance volume, indicating strong technical momentum.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 months and the golden cross pattern is sustained.
CounterNear a 52-week high with negative implied upside of 8.3%, the technical breakout may be extended and late-stage with limited room for additional gains.
With the stock trading above its analyst target and 8.3% negative implied upside, the risk-reward is inverted — new position entry at current levels is not supported by the price target framework.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- New analyst targets emerge above $24, restoring at least 10% upside and a favorable risk-reward profile.
CounterRegional bank analyst targets frequently lag actual price action; the stock's strong earnings history may support continued price appreciation above current targets.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.8 |
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $4,332,803 (0.349% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 5.8 |
| growth rank | 6.9 |
Technical
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.9 |
| support resistance | 6.0 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 6.8 |
| put call | 8.3 |
| implied vol | 1.2 |
| beta | 8.4 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 73%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (3)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.35%=HEAVY
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.04
Upside
-0.2%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.2B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear. Top dim: Growth at 8.7; weakest: Momentum at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.7, Technical at 8.2, and Value at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 3.3, Catalyst at 4.3, and Insider at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings miss occurs in 2 consecutive quarters with negative surprise exceeding 8%.
- P2Attractive Valuation Forward Pe
Trip ifForward earnings estimates decline by more than 10%, pushing forward price-to-earnings above 12x at current price.
- P3Breakout Technical Strength
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and the golden cross pattern reverses to a death cross.
- P4Analyst Target Reached Inverted Rr
Trip ifNo new analyst target above $24 emerges within 6 months despite continued earnings beats.