Orion Group shows strong reported growth numbers, but an earnings-quality red flag from negative free cash flow relative to net income, a borderline momentum gate failure, and notable insider selling raise caution around the recently-reached price target.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Quality Red Flag→Stable
- Borderline Momentum Gate Fail→Stable
- Target Reached Valuation Ceiling→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Engineering & Construction
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.22: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Orion Group Holdings is a Houston-based specialty construction company operating two segments: Marine, providing dredging, marine transportation facility, and coastal restoration construction primarily for U.S. federal, state, and local government agencies and private clients... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.22: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Orion Group Holdings, Inc.
About Orion Group Holdings, Inc.
Orion Group Holdings generated $852.3 million in total contract revenue in 2025, up from $796.4 million in 2024, split between a marine construction segment (dredging, port and coastal infrastructure) and a concrete construction segment serving commercial, industrial, and data-center clients in Texas, Florida, and Arizona. Private companies accounted for 48% of 2025 contract revenue, followed by federal (19%), local (19%), and state (14%) government customers. In February 2026, Orion acquired J.E. McAmis, adding dredging, jetty and breakwater construction, and dam and spillway construction capabilities.
The marine segment earns revenue from fixed-price and lump-sum contracts to build, rehabilitate, and maintain transportation facilities, pipelines, bridges, and coastal restoration projects for federal, state, and local government agencies as well as private commercial and industrial clients across the continental United States, Alaska, Hawaii, Canada, and the Caribbean Basin. The concrete segment, which competes mostly against small local contractors as well as larger regional and national construction firms, has completed more than 40 data centers for hyperscale clients and self-performs the majority of its concrete work to control quality and schedule. Orion maintains a large owned equipment fleet, including barges, dredges, and cranes, and requires performance and payment bonds from several large multinational surety companies to bid on public and private contracts.
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With the exception of the United States Navy, Orion does not believe the loss of any single customer would materially affect its results, since the Navy is the only customer that sustains a large portion of contract revenue over time; the joint venture subcontract on the $2.8 billion Pearl Harbor dry dock project alone generated approximately $121.5 million of Orion's revenue in 2025. The company also carries geographic concentration outside the U.S.: its Bahamian operations represented 4.9% of 2025 contract revenue and 14.2% of its unrestricted cash balance, exposing results to a single foreign market's economic and political conditions.
See also: Industrials · Engineering & Construction
From Orion Group Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-08Recent Developments — Orion Group Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage On Orion Group Holdings with Outperform Rating, Announces Price Target of $20 — benzinga Jul 7, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-08T21:03:53Z.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.22: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $13.22. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $15.03 (+5.7% upside). Prior stop was $13.22. Stop-loss: $13.22.
Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).
Orion Group Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 67.7 (forward 21.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover ORN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $17.
What does Orion Group Holdings, Inc. do?Orion Group Holdings is a Houston-based specialty construction company operating two segments: Marine, providing...
Orion Group Holdings is a Houston-based specialty construction company operating two segments: Marine, providing dredging, marine transportation facility, and coastal restoration construction primarily for U.S. federal, state, and local government agencies and private clients across the continental U.S., Alaska, Hawaii, Canada, and the Caribbean; and Concrete, serving commercial, industrial, multi-family, and data-center construction in Texas, Florida, and Arizona. The company reported $852.3 million in total contract revenue for 2025, split among private companies (48%), federal (19%), local