Value
8.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.20
- ▸Attractively valued
ONB · Why this verdict
Why Old National Bancorp (ONB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Old National Bancorp has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of 3.1% and ranks as the industry growth leader among regional banks with 46% revenue growth year-over-year, but geographic concentration in the Midwest and Southeast alongside regulatory concentration with the OCC and a negative asymmetry ratio limit near-term upside appeal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Old National achieved 46% revenue growth year-over-year, ranking as the industry growth leader among regional banking peers, reflecting successful expansion through acquisitions or organic loan and deposit growth in its Midwest and Southeast markets. Growth breakdown | Revenue grows by more than 15% year-over-year in each of the next 2 reported quarters, confirming the growth trajectory is sustaining beyond the initial expansion phase. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRevenue growth of 46% in a regional bank typically reflects an acquisition rather than organic growth, which means future periods will face a tougher comparison base and the reported growth rate will normalize sharply in subsequent quarters. | ||
Old National's geographic concentration in the Midwest and Southeast, combined with OCC regulatory concentration, creates a dual-layer risk where an economic downturn in those specific markets or a regulatory action from the primary regulator could disproportionately impact the business relative to more diversified peers. Bear case | Loan portfolio remains diversified with no single geographic market representing more than 40% of total loans, limiting the impact of regional economic weakness. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGeographic focus in well-understood regional markets can be a competitive advantage — regional banks with deep local relationships often achieve better credit underwriting outcomes than national banks operating in the same geographies. | ||
Old National has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with consistent positive surprises of 0.9%, 4.4%, 5.0%, and 2.3%, suggesting stable execution and conservative guidance-setting that provides a track record of reliable delivery. Earnings | Beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters with average positive surprise remaining above 2%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe average surprise of 3.1% is narrow and could easily turn negative with a small deterioration in net interest margin or an increase in loan loss provisions — common risks for regional banks exposed to commercial real estate in the current rate environment. | ||
A put/call ratio of 2.40 is significantly elevated, indicating options market participants are paying meaningfully more for downside protection than upside participation, and the negative asymmetry ratio of -0.27 means the stock is already priced beyond the near-term upside target. Key risks | Put/call ratio falls below 1.5 within 3 months as the stock price consolidates below the $25 resistance level and options hedging demand normalizes. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio in a regional bank stock may reflect institutional holders hedging their concentrated positions rather than outright bearish speculation, and the positive momentum score of 7.8 suggests the primary trend remains constructive. | ||
Old National achieved 46% revenue growth year-over-year, ranking as the industry growth leader among regional banking peers, reflecting successful expansion through acquisitions or organic loan and deposit growth in its Midwest and Southeast markets.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue grows by more than 15% year-over-year in each of the next 2 reported quarters, confirming the growth trajectory is sustaining beyond the initial expansion phase.
CounterRevenue growth of 46% in a regional bank typically reflects an acquisition rather than organic growth, which means future periods will face a tougher comparison base and the reported growth rate will normalize sharply in subsequent quarters.
Old National's geographic concentration in the Midwest and Southeast, combined with OCC regulatory concentration, creates a dual-layer risk where an economic downturn in those specific markets or a regulatory action from the primary regulator could disproportionately impact the business relative to more diversified peers.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Loan portfolio remains diversified with no single geographic market representing more than 40% of total loans, limiting the impact of regional economic weakness.
CounterGeographic focus in well-understood regional markets can be a competitive advantage — regional banks with deep local relationships often achieve better credit underwriting outcomes than national banks operating in the same geographies.
Old National has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with consistent positive surprises of 0.9%, 4.4%, 5.0%, and 2.3%, suggesting stable execution and conservative guidance-setting that provides a track record of reliable delivery.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters with average positive surprise remaining above 2%.
CounterThe average surprise of 3.1% is narrow and could easily turn negative with a small deterioration in net interest margin or an increase in loan loss provisions — common risks for regional banks exposed to commercial real estate in the current rate environment.
A put/call ratio of 2.40 is significantly elevated, indicating options market participants are paying meaningfully more for downside protection than upside participation, and the negative asymmetry ratio of -0.27 means the stock is already priced beyond the near-term upside target.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 1.5 within 3 months as the stock price consolidates below the $25 resistance level and options hedging demand normalizes.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio in a regional bank stock may reflect institutional holders hedging their concentrated positions rather than outright bearish speculation, and the positive momentum score of 7.8 suggests the primary trend remains constructive.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 36%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.4 |
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.0 |
| quality rank | 6.6 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.3 |
| support resistance | 5.7 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 6.00
- ▸High IV: 71%
- ▸Above max pain $15
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.08
Upside
+5.4%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 8.5; weakest: Momentum at 4.0. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Sentiment at 6.8, and Technical at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 4.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4, and Quality at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.08 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Leading Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the post-acquisition growth surge has normalized to a low-growth trajectory.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -3% for 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the consistent positive beat pattern.
- P3Geographic Regulatory Concentration
Trip ifNon-performing loan ratio rises above 1.5% of total loans for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling geographic concentration risk is materializing in credit quality.
- P4Elevated Put Call Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 3.0, indicating hedging demand is intensifying rather than normalizing.