O-I Glass offers extreme value at a forward P/E of 4.7x with 26.9% upside to analyst targets and a strong earnings beat streak of 3 of 4 quarters, but the business carries below-minimum quality with no competitive moat, deeply negative quality scores, and a confirmed price downtrend.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Investment Floor→Stable
- Extreme Valuation Discount→Stable
- Earnings Recovery Signals↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026
O-I Glass, Inc. (OI) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.63: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
O-I Glass manufactures glass containers for beverages, food, and pharmaceuticals across 64 plants in 18 countries, operating through Americas and Europe segments with approximately 19,000 employees. Revenue comes from direct sales to global food and beverage manufacturers under... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.63: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 96d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About O-I Glass, Inc.
About O-I Glass, Inc.
O-I Glass operates 64 glass container plants across 18 countries—30 in the Americas and 33 in Europe—employing approximately 19,000 people. The company holds the top domestic-producer market share in the U.S. glass container segment by sales revenue, competing directly with Ardagh Group and Anchor Glass Container in the United States and Verallia in both Brazil and Europe. A Fit to Win restructuring launched in 2024 drove the halt of the MAGMA glass melting program in the second quarter of 2025, generating roughly $104 million in impairment charges.
O-I Glass sells containers for alcoholic beverages (beer, wine, spirits), non-alcoholic beverages, food, and pharmaceuticals directly to large global manufacturers, including Anheuser-Busch InBev, Diageo, Heineken, Nestle, and Pernod Ricard, under annual and multi-year supply agreements; multi-year contracts typically include cost-pass-through provisions for raw material and energy price changes. One customer spanning both the Europe and Americas segments accounted for approximately 10% of consolidated 2025 net sales. Energy—principally natural gas, fuel oil, and electricity—represents 10% to 20% of total manufacturing costs depending on plant location. In the U.S. and Canada, more than 89% of sales volumes carry contracts that transfer the commodity price of natural gas to the customer. European operations rely on mid- to long-term natural gas supply contracts of one to three years; a significant amount of European natural gas is ultimately sourced from Russia, which could expose the company to supply and price disruption if geopolitical conditions deteriorate.
Show full overview
O-I Glass has faced sustained inventory destocking since 2023 across wine, spirits, and beer customers, compressing glass container shipments. The 10-K flags that lower alcohol consumption, consumer shifts away from glass-packaged products, and customer inventory management changes could continue to weigh on volumes. In parallel, the EU Emissions Trading Scheme free allowance allocation is expected to phase out from 2026 to 2034, which could raise carbon compliance costs in European plants over the same period unless offset through productivity improvements or higher container prices.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
From O-I Glass, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — O-I Glass, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS O-I Glass Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026
- NEWS O-I Glass Q3 Adj. EPS $(0.09) Misses $0.18 Estimate, Sales $1.623B Miss $1.637B Estimate — benzinga Oct 27, 2026 negative
- NEWS O-I Glass Releases 2026 Sustainability Report Detailing Progress Toward 2030 Goals — fiscal.ai Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on O-I Glass, Lowers Price Target to $10 — benzinga Oct 19, 2026 neutral
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Sector Perform on O-I Glass, Lowers Price Target to $7 — benzinga Oct 13, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerone customer (~10% of net sales)10%10-K Item 1: 'one customer ... accounted for approximately 10% of consolidated net sales for the year ended December 31, 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.63: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $5.24. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $6.99 (+24.2% upside). Prior stop was $5.24. Stop-loss: $5.24.
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).
O-I Glass, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 4.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover OI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $8.
What does O-I Glass, Inc. do?O-I Glass manufactures glass containers for beverages, food, and pharmaceuticals across 64 plants in 18 countries,...
O-I Glass manufactures glass containers for beverages, food, and pharmaceuticals across 64 plants in 18 countries, operating through Americas and Europe segments with approximately 19,000 employees. Revenue comes from direct sales to global food and beverage manufacturers under annual and multi-year supply agreements; one customer accounted for approximately 10% of 2025 consolidated net sales.