Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.32
- ▸Attractively valued
NVGS · Why this verdict
Why Navigator Holdings (NVGS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 6.8 |
| Op margin | 8.9 |
| Net margin | 9.4 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.7 |
| EPS growth | 9.7 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -7%
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.2 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 5.1 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 27)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $726,595 (0.054% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 2.7 |
| growth rank | 1.4 |
Technical
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.2 |
| support resistance | 8.8 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.7 |
| debt equity | 6.6 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.5 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 128.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:65d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.14
Upside
+0.8%
Downside
5.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Technical at 8.3; weakest: Peer rank at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.3, Value at 7.9, and Sentiment at 7.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.8, Insider at 3.9, and Momentum at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.