Value
8.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.6 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
NRGV · Why this verdict
Why Energy Vault Holdings (NRGV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Energy Vault shows 104% year-over-year revenue growth and a 103% gap to the analyst target, but it burns cash at 51% of revenue, has missed earnings in 3 of 4 quarters, depends on few customers and is in a sharp downtrend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 104% year over year, with $17.4M in the June 2026 quarter against $8.5M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should hold above the year-earlier $8.5M and approach the $15.9M next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is very lumpy: $153.3M in December 2025, then $21.9M and $17.4M, so the 104% growth rate comes from project timing and the trend is down. | ||
The company is cash-burning at 51% of revenue in free cash flow, with no competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2 of 9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow burn should narrow from 51% of revenue as projects scale. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality scores 1.6, below the 4.0 floor, and the burn could force new financing that dilutes shareholders. | ||
Price of $2.55 sits 103.2% below the $5.18 analyst target, against 15.0% downside to the $2.39 stop, a reward-to-risk of 6.9. Upside pct | Price should move toward the analyst target if revenue and cash burn improve. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice is in a falling-knife pattern: RSI of 10, a death cross and a 62% drawdown, and analyst coverage is light. | ||
EPS missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters, most recently -$0.14 against a -$0.13 estimate, and misses must stop for the thesis to hold. Miss count | EPS losses should narrow back toward the $0.02 profit seen in March 2026. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe two latest misses were wider losses than expected (-$0.12 and -$0.14), which shows losses are growing as revenue falls. | ||
Revenue depends on a limited number of customers, so the loss of one contract would remove a large share of sales. Bear case | Quarterly revenue stays above the $15.9M next-quarter estimate with no loss of a major customer. | ↑Improving |
| CounterConcentration is flagged in the 10-K as 1 high and 1 medium risk, and the swing from $153M to $17M in quarterly revenue shows how exposed it is. | ||
Revenue grew 104% year over year, with $17.4M in the June 2026 quarter against $8.5M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should hold above the year-earlier $8.5M and approach the $15.9M next-quarter estimate.
CounterRevenue is very lumpy: $153.3M in December 2025, then $21.9M and $17.4M, so the 104% growth rate comes from project timing and the trend is down.
The company is cash-burning at 51% of revenue in free cash flow, with no competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2 of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow burn should narrow from 51% of revenue as projects scale.
CounterQuality scores 1.6, below the 4.0 floor, and the burn could force new financing that dilutes shareholders.
Price of $2.55 sits 103.2% below the $5.18 analyst target, against 15.0% downside to the $2.39 stop, a reward-to-risk of 6.9.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the analyst target if revenue and cash burn improve.
CounterPrice is in a falling-knife pattern: RSI of 10, a death cross and a 62% drawdown, and analyst coverage is light.
EPS missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters, most recently -$0.14 against a -$0.13 estimate, and misses must stop for the thesis to hold.
↓DeterioratingMiss count
- Expectation
- EPS losses should narrow back toward the $0.02 profit seen in March 2026.
CounterThe two latest misses were wider losses than expected (-$0.12 and -$0.14), which shows losses are growing as revenue falls.
Revenue depends on a limited number of customers, so the loss of one contract would remove a large share of sales.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above the $15.9M next-quarter estimate with no loss of a major customer.
CounterConcentration is flagged in the 10-K as 1 high and 1 medium risk, and the swing from $153M to $17M in quarterly revenue shows how exposed it is.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.5 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -51% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 104% YoY
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 2.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 85%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $667 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 9.1 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.6 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.4 |
| days to cover | 2.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 3.2 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 21%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.52
- ▸High IV: 125%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.9>=5.0 recovering
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
4.06
Upside
+60.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47
EdgeSector Rotation — Utilities sector out of favor, value=8.8
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -52% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 4.06.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.8, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Quality at 1.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 1.8, and Peer rank at 3.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rapid But Lumpy Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $8.5M from the current $17.4M.
- P2Heavy Cash Burn
Trip ifFree cash flow burn exceeds 75% of revenue from the current 51%.
- P3Large Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $4.00 from the current $5.18.
- P4Recent Earnings Misses
Trip ifQuarterly EPS falls below -$0.20 from the current -$0.14.
- P5Customer Concentration
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $14M, under the $15.9M next-quarter estimate.