NOV Inc. has exceptional free cash flow conversion of 853% of net income and a strong balance sheet, but its quality score of 3.7 falls below the minimum floor, two recent consecutive earnings misses signal weakening profitability, and the price has already exceeded analyst consensus targets.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Below Quality Floor Score↑Improving
- Consecutive Earnings Misses↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026
NOV Inc. (NOV) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Sell if holding. At $19.27, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1).
NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and production, and industrial and renewable energy sectors in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Energy Equipment, and Energy... Read more
Sell if holding. At $19.27, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 97d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — NOV Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS NOV Inc. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors despite daily gains - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS NOV (NYSE:NOV) surprises with Q3 2026 sales - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS Indonesian stocks with high shareholding concentrations to be excluded from index starting Nov 2 - Reuters — Reuters neutral
- NEWS How Strong Oil Prices Will Impact NOV Stock - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street positive
- NEWS NOV Inc. stock outperforms competitors on strong trading day - MarketWatch — MarketWatch positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Revenue shrinking — -2.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $19.27, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $18.09. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $19.87 (+3.1% upside). Prior stop was $18.09. Stop-loss: $18.09.
Thin upside margin: 3.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Consecutive earnings misses (2).
NOV Inc. trades at a P/E of 47.0 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover NOV with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $22.
What does NOV Inc. do?NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and...
NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and production, and industrial and renewable energy sectors in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Energy Equipment, and Energy Products and Services. The Energy Products and Services segment offers drill bits and borehole enlargement products; independent drilling and intervention downhole tools equipment; frac plugs, frac sleeves, toe initiation burst port systems, and recyclable setting tools; electric submersible pumps, high viscosity pumps, and surface pumps; tubular coating and inspection services for drill-pipe and other oil country tubular goods; solids control and waste management equipment and services; data and digital solutions; precision-engineered drill pipe and drill-stem equipment; connectors and integral thread solutions, including conductor strings, surface casing, and liners; and composite pipe, tanks, and structures. Its Energy Equipment segment provides drilling equipment, such as land rigs, complete offshore drilling packages, and rig components; capital equipment, related consumables, and digital products for hydraulic stimulation, coiled tubing, and wireline services; marine and construction solutions; processing solutions for the separation and treatment of oil, gas, solids, seawater, and produced water production; flexible subsea pipe systems; cavity pumps, specialized mixers and heat exchangers; and reciprocating, multistage, and progressive cavity pumps, midstream products, including closures, transfer pumps, chokes and valves, as well as artificial lift support systems that include production BOPs and stuffing boxes. The company was formerly known as National Oilwell Varco, Inc. and changed its name to NOV Inc. in January 2021. NOV Inc. was founded in 1862 and is based in Houston, Texas.