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NICNicolet Bankshares Inc.Hold6.4·$147.10+2.11%
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Nicolet Bankshares Inc. (NIC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $147.10, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Nicolet Bankshares is a Wisconsin-based bank and financial holding company operating through Nicolet National Bank, a full-service community bank with 57 branches at year-end 2025 (114 post-MidWestOne acquisition), serving Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa with... Read more

$147.10+3.0% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#10 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield0.92%Payout15.04%sustainable
Stop $138.20Target $151.55(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$174.20+18.4%5 analysts
$151.55our TP
$147.10price
$174.20mean
$183

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $147.10, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 14, 202635d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.0%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.1
P/E (Fwd)10.8
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn31.1%
ROE7.7%
Rev Growth46.5%
Beta0.68
Dividend0.92%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$135-8.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicWisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota
    10-K Item 1: 'As of year-end 2025, Nicolet primarily operated in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-20Item 2.01MEDIUM
    Nicolet completed the merger with MidWestOne Financial Group, Inc. on February 13, 2026. MidWestOne merged into Nicolet; Nicolet issued ~6.6 million shares at 0.3175 exchange ratio. MidWestOne had ~$6B in assets.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-26Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved equity awards of 101,000 total RSUs to executives for MidWestOne integration: Michael Daniels 20,000, others 10,000 each. Performance-based vesting over 3-year period through Dec 31, 2028.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.7
52w Position
8.1
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 35d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $131.86Resistance $148.29

Price Targets

$138
$152
A.Upside+3.0%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-14 (35d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NIC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $147.10, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $151.55 (+3.0%), stop $138.20 (−6.4%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NIC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $151.55 (+3.0% upside). Target $151.55 (+3.0%), stop $138.20 (−6.4%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $138.20.

What are the risks of investing in NIC?

Thin upside margin: 3.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Is NIC overvalued or undervalued?

Nicolet Bankshares Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.1 (forward 10.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NIC?

9 analysts cover NIC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $174.

What does Nicolet Bankshares Inc. do?Nicolet Bankshares is a Wisconsin-based bank and financial holding company operating through Nicolet National Bank, a...

Nicolet Bankshares is a Wisconsin-based bank and financial holding company operating through Nicolet National Bank, a full-service community bank with 57 branches at year-end 2025 (114 post-MidWestOne acquisition), serving Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa with commercial, agricultural, and consumer banking plus wealth management services. Total assets were $9.2B at December 31, 2025; 2025 net income was $151M ($9.78 diluted EPS).

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