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Nicolet Bankshares Inc. (NIC) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $146.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.6%; Negative momentum.

Nicolet Bankshares is a Wisconsin-based bank and financial holding company operating through Nicolet National Bank, a full-service community bank with 57 branches at year-end 2025 (114 post-MidWestOne acquisition), serving Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa with... Read more

$146.33+3.6% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#35 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $138.22Target $151.55(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$174.20+19.0%5 analysts
$151.55our TP
$146.33price
$174.20mean
$183

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $146.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.6%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.6%
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.2
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn31.1%
ROE7.7%
Rev Growth46.5%
Beta0.74
Dividend0.90%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.17bearish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$145-0.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicWisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota
    10-K Item 1: 'As of year-end 2025, Nicolet primarily operated in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-20Item 2.01MEDIUM
    Nicolet completed the merger with MidWestOne Financial Group, Inc. on February 13, 2026. MidWestOne merged into Nicolet; Nicolet issued ~6.6 million shares at 0.3175 exchange ratio. MidWestOne had ~$6B in assets.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-26Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved equity awards of 101,000 total RSUs to executives for MidWestOne integration: Michael Daniels 20,000, others 10,000 each. Performance-based vesting over 3-year period through Dec 31, 2028.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
4.0
Obv
4.8
Rsi
8.1
Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunityAbove 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 74d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $142.49Resistance $161.00

Price Targets

$138
$152
A.Upside+3.6%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-14 (74d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NIC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $146.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.6%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $151.55 (+3.6%), stop $138.22 (−5.9%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NIC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $151.55 (+3.6% upside). Target $151.55 (+3.6%), stop $138.22 (−5.9%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Stop-loss: $138.22.

What are the risks of investing in NIC?

Thin upside margin: 3.6%; Negative momentum.

Is NIC overvalued or undervalued?

Nicolet Bankshares Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.2 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NIC?

9 analysts cover NIC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $174.

What does Nicolet Bankshares Inc. do?Nicolet Bankshares is a Wisconsin-based bank and financial holding company operating through Nicolet National Bank, a...

Nicolet Bankshares is a Wisconsin-based bank and financial holding company operating through Nicolet National Bank, a full-service community bank with 57 branches at year-end 2025 (114 post-MidWestOne acquisition), serving Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa with commercial, agricultural, and consumer banking plus wealth management services. Total assets were $9.2B at December 31, 2025; 2025 net income was $151M ($9.78 diluted EPS).

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