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FFBCFirst Financial Bancorp.Hold6.4·$31.78+0.73%
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First Financial Bancorp. (FFBC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Illinois; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

First Financial Bancorp is a Cincinnati-based regional bank holding company serving Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, and Illinois through First Financial Bank and specialty lending subsidiaries (Oak Street Funding, First Franchise Capital, Bannockburn Global Forex). It acquired... Read more

$31.78-1.5% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#21 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.17%(5y avg 3.94%)Payout34.98%sustainable
Stop $30.60Target $31.29(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$33.43+5.2%7 analysts
$31.29our TP
$31.78price
$33.43mean
$30
$37

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Illinois; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 42d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202642d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Illinois
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (-0.1% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.1
P/E (Fwd)9.2
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn30.4%
ROE10.2%
Rev Growth32.3%
Beta0.94
Dividend3.17%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C3.00bearish
IV65%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicIndiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Illinois
    10-K Item 1A: 'our community banking business model and local market focus has led to a concentration in the markets in which we operate, namely Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Illinois'
  • MEDIUMCustomersmall number of large clients (Bannockburn)
    10-K Item 1A: 'Bannockburn's business model relies, to some extent, upon a small number of large clients. The loss of one or more of these large clients would adversely affect the revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.6
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 42d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $29.26Resistance $31.93

Price Targets

$31
$31
A.Upside-1.5%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (42d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FFBC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Illinois; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $31.29 (-1.5%), stop $30.60 (−3.9%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FFBC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.29 (-1.5% upside). Target $31.29 (-1.5%), stop $30.60 (−3.9%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Stop-loss: $30.60.

What are the risks of investing in FFBC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Illinois; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (-0.1% away).

Is FFBC overvalued or undervalued?

First Financial Bancorp. trades at a P/E of 11.1 (forward 9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FFBC?

13 analysts cover FFBC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $33.

What does First Financial Bancorp. do?First Financial Bancorp is a Cincinnati-based regional bank holding company serving Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, and...

First Financial Bancorp is a Cincinnati-based regional bank holding company serving Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, and Illinois through First Financial Bank and specialty lending subsidiaries (Oak Street Funding, First Franchise Capital, Bannockburn Global Forex). It acquired Westfield Bancorp ($324M, Nov 2025) and BankFinancial Corporation ($1.4B assets, closed Jan 2026). The bank provides commercial, real estate, and consumer lending along with trust and wealth management.

Related stocks: CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · GABC (German American Bancorp, Inc.) · IFS (Intercorp Financial Services In) · INTR (Inter & Co. Inc.) · SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation)
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