NiSource is a regulated gas utility near its 52-week high and above analyst consensus targets, with momentum behind it but a structural free cash flow deficit of -162% relative to net income and no near-term upside to analyst price targets.
Thesis pillars
- Utility Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Flow Quality→Stable
- Price Above Analyst Target↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
NiSource Inc (NI) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
Sell if holding. At $41.41, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).
NiSource is a utility holding company serving approximately 3.8 million customers in six states through Columbia Operations (natural gas distribution in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Maryland) and NIPSCO Operations (gas and electric in northern Indiana). The... Read more
Sell if holding. At $41.41, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About NiSource Inc
About NiSource Inc
NiSource's two fully regulated subsidiaries serve 3.8 million customers in six states: Columbia Operations distributes natural gas to about 2.4 million customers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Maryland, while NIPSCO provides gas and electric service to roughly 1.4 million customers in northern Indiana. State commissions have authorized ROEs of 9.60% (Columbia of Ohio) to 10.00% (Columbia of Pennsylvania) across recent rate cases, with NIPSCO Electric's Step 1 rates taking effect in July 2025. NIPSCO's total generation capacity stands at 3,967 MW spanning coal, natural gas, wind, solar, and storage.
Both Columbia Operations and NIPSCO earn revenue through cost-of-service tariffs with gas cost adjustment clauses (GCAs), fuel adjustment clauses (FACs for electric), and weather normalization mechanisms that partially decouple revenues from consumption volumes. Columbia of Ohio uses a straight fixed-variable rate design that recovers fixed costs through fixed charges; Columbia of Maryland and Columbia of Virginia have regulatory approval for weather and revenue normalization adjustments. In September 2025, NiSource executed the ADS Contract under which NIPSCO will procure power from new subsidiary GenCo to supply a data center customer; GenCo plans to develop 400 MW of battery storage and two 1,300 MW combined-cycle gas turbines expected online between 2028 and 2032. Coal retirement is also underway: R.M. Schahfer's coal units (722 MW) were subject to a December 2025 emergency order from the U.S. Secretary of Energy to remain in service through March 23, 2026, while the Michigan City coal facility (455 MW) is scheduled to retire by end of 2028.
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NiSource's partnership with ADS creates a customer concentration exposure the 10-K explicitly calls a standalone risk category. If construction of the two 1,300 MW CCGTs or the 400 MW battery storage system is delayed, or if MISO capacity accreditation rules change to reduce the value of the constructed resources, the company would bear initial capital costs while ADS cost-sharing only materializes over an extended recovery period. The ADS Contract's return structure differs from NIPSCO's traditional regulated utility model, and cost overruns under the EPC contracts could reduce returns below the regulated baseline that NiSource's other capital projects are designed to earn.
See also: Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
From NiSource Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-13Recent Developments — NiSource Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Analysts Estimate NiSource (NI) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Analysts Estimate NiSource (NI) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com negative
- NEWS NiSource (NI) Expected to Post Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Resolution Capital Ltd Sells 46,889 Shares of NiSource, Inc $NI - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS NiSource Inc (NI) Earnings Forecast: Future EPS & Revenue Growth Estimates - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
Generated 2026-09-14T05:21:58Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerADS10-K Item 1A: 'Our partnership with ADS exposes us to significant customer concentration risk'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $41.41, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Prior stop was $40.17. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $43.38 (+4.7% upside). Prior stop was $40.17. Stop-loss: $40.17.
Thin upside margin: 4.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5.
NiSource Inc trades at a P/E of 22.0 (forward 18.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover NI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $50.
What does NiSource Inc do?NiSource is a utility holding company serving approximately 3.8 million customers in six states through Columbia...
NiSource is a utility holding company serving approximately 3.8 million customers in six states through Columbia Operations (natural gas distribution in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Maryland) and NIPSCO Operations (gas and electric in northern Indiana). The company derives substantially all revenues from rate-regulated tariffs set by state PUCs and FERC, with authorized ROEs of 9.60%–10.00% across recent rate cases.