Noble Corporation generates exceptional free cash flow at 169% of net income, holds strong technical support levels, and carries rising earnings estimates — yet has missed earnings expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 31%, trades above the analyst price target, and shows revenue declining at 11% year-over-year.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Fcf Conversion Cash Quality↓Deteriorating
- Consecutive Earnings Misses↑Improving
- Revenue Decline And Analyst Target Breached↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026
Noble Corporation plc A (NE) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Energy · Oil & Gas Drilling
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $47.06: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.39; Below-average business quality.
Noble Corporation plc is an offshore drilling contractor providing contract drilling services through a fleet of 36 rigs (25 floaters, 11 jackups) focused on ultra-deepwater and ultra-harsh environments across Africa, the North Sea, Oceania, South America, and the US Gulf. The... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $47.06: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.39; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 4.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost earnings 0.60, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 104d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Noble Corporation plc A
About Noble Corporation plc A
Noble Corporation plc's 2025 revenues were concentrated across three customers — ExxonMobil (19.7%), BP (13.2%), and Petrobras (12.5%) — and three geographies: the US Gulf (27.1%), Guyana (19.7%), and the North Sea (16.9%). Noble completed the acquisition of Diamond Offshore Drilling on September 4, 2024, bringing total fleet size to 36 rigs (25 floaters and 11 jackups) as of December 31, 2025, with approximately 4,500 employees. Fleet operations spanned Africa, Far East Asia, the North Sea, Oceania, South America, and the US Gulf.
Noble earns revenue through day-rate contracts awarded competitively with major integrated, independent, and national oil companies, with rates varying by rig specification, water depth capability, and market conditions. The company operates primarily through ultra-deepwater drillships (17 units capable of 12,000-foot water depths) and ultra-harsh environment jackups in Norway and the UK. Contract backlog at year-end 2025 was concentrated in four customers: ExxonMobil (23.7%), Shell plc (19.5%), BP (16.2%), and TotalEnergies (12.6%). Brent crude averaged $68 per barrel in 2025 and settled in the mid-to-high $60s in early 2026 — levels supportive of offshore activity, though management flagged near-term utilization headwinds from OPEC's stated intent to increase production and economic uncertainty from recent trade policy. Contracts with national oil companies such as Petrobras may expose Noble to greater commercial and political risks, including potential termination without cause under certain conditions.
Show full overview
ExxonMobil stands as Noble's largest customer by both 2025 revenue share (19.7%) and contract backlog (23.7%), with multiple drillships contracted in Guyana — the company's second-largest revenue geography at 19.7% of 2025 revenues. This overlap means a single-country disruption in Guyana could simultaneously affect both the dominant customer relationship and the second-most-important geography. The 10-K states that if ExxonMobil were to terminate contracts and Noble were unable to find replacement customers promptly, the impact on financial condition and results of operations could be material.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Drilling
From Noble Corporation plc A's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Noble Corporation plc A
Latest news
- NEWS Noble (NE) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript - AOL.com — AOL.com neutral
- NEWS Noble (NE) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Noble (NE) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS NE (Noble) reports sharp EPS miss even as 7.5 percent annual revenue growth drives minor share gains. - Social Momentum — Xã Vĩnh Công negative
- NEWS Noble (NYSE:NE) Rating Lowered to Strong Sell at Zacks Research - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerExxonMobil20%10-K Item 1A: 'ExxonMobil, BP, and Petrobras accounted for approximately 19.7%, 13.2%, and 12.5% respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- LOWCustomerBP13%10-K Item 1A: 'ExxonMobil, BP, and Petrobras accounted for approximately 19.7%, 13.2%, and 12.5% respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- LOWCustomerPetrobras13%10-K Item 1A: 'ExxonMobil, BP, and Petrobras accounted for approximately 19.7%, 13.2%, and 12.5% respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMGeographicUS Gulf27%10-K Item 1A: 'operations in the US Gulf, Guyana, and the North Sea accounted for approximately 27.1%, 19.7%, and 16.9%, respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues'
- LOWGeographicGuyana20%10-K Item 1A: 'operations in the US Gulf, Guyana, and the North Sea accounted for approximately 27.1%, 19.7%, and 16.9%, respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues'
- LOWGeographicNorth Sea17%10-K Item 1A: 'operations in the US Gulf, Guyana, and the North Sea accounted for approximately 27.1%, 19.7%, and 16.9%, respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-22Item 5.02LOWNoble Corporation plc expanded its board to eight directors on May 21, 2026, appointing Jeff Miller as an independent director per NYSE rules. No arrangement with other persons cited; no related-party transactions disclosed.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOWDirector Kristin Holth notified Noble Corporation plc's board on March 12, 2026 of her resignation effective at the 2026 Annual General Meeting; will not stand for re-election. No disagreement with board, management, operations, policies or practices cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -9.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $47.06: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.39; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $43.77. Score 4.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $40.82 reached (−13.3% from $47.06); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $43.77. Stop-loss: $43.77.
Target reached (-13.3% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).
Noble Corporation plc A trades at a P/E of 142.6 (forward 24.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover NE with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $47.
What does Noble Corporation plc A do?Noble Corporation plc is an offshore drilling contractor providing contract drilling services through a fleet of 36...
Noble Corporation plc is an offshore drilling contractor providing contract drilling services through a fleet of 36 rigs (25 floaters, 11 jackups) focused on ultra-deepwater and ultra-harsh environments across Africa, the North Sea, Oceania, South America, and the US Gulf. The company earns revenue through day-rate contracts with major oil companies; ExxonMobil, BP, and Petrobras each exceeded 10% of 2025 revenues.