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Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5High Confidence

Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

Sell if holding. At $194.36, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.7%; Earnings expected to decline ~86% (cyclical peak).

Nebius Group N.V., a technology company, engages in building full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI industry in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It offers Nebius builds full-stack infrastructure for AI, including large-scale GPU clusters,... Read more

$194.36+4.7% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#24 of 27 Internet Content & Information
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-12.21%
Stop $178.39Target $200.77(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$230.77+18.7%13 analysts
$200.77our TP
$194.36price
$230.77mean
$120
$291

Sell if holding. At $194.36, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.7%; Earnings expected to decline ~86% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Nebius Group N.V.

Generated 2026-05-21T16:31:26Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Earnings expected to decline ~86% (cyclical peak)
Thin upside margin: 4.7%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)76.3
P/E (Fwd)547.4
Mkt Cap$50.2B
EV/EBITDA-1316.8
Profit Mgn93.1%
ROE14.1%
Rev Growth621.5%
Beta1.24
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.89neutral
IV112%elevated
Max Pain$97-50.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
1.2
Analyst Target
5.0
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $132.70Resistance $233.73

Price Targets

$178
$201
A.Upside+3.3%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 547x vs trail 76x (7.2x)
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NBIS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $194.36, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.7%; Earnings expected to decline ~86% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $178.39. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the NBIS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $200.77 (+4.7% upside). Prior stop was $178.39. Stop-loss: $178.39.

What are the risks of investing in NBIS?

Earnings expected to decline ~86% (cyclical peak); Thin upside margin: 4.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).

Is NBIS overvalued or undervalued?

Nebius Group N.V. trades at a P/E of 76.3 (forward 547.4). TrendMatrix value score: 3.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NBIS?

22 analysts cover NBIS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $231.

What does Nebius Group N.V. do?Nebius Group N.V., a technology company, engages in building full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI...

Nebius Group N.V., a technology company, engages in building full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI industry in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It offers Nebius builds full-stack infrastructure for AI, including large-scale GPU clusters, cloud platforms, and tools and services for developers. The company also provides TripleTen, an edtech platform for re-skilling individuals for careers in technolgy; and Avride, which develops autonomous driving technology for self-driving cars and delivery robotics. It has a strategic alliance with NVIDIA Corporation to support the expansion of the company's AI cloud infrastructure. The company was formerly known as Yandex N.V. and changed its name to Nebius Group N.V. in August 2024. Nebius Group N.V. was founded in 1989 and is based in Schiphol, the Netherlands.

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