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Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $35.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.

Match Group, Inc., through its portfolio companies, is a leading provider of digital technologies designed to

$35.72+2.7% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#4 of 27 Internet Content & Information
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield9.76%
IncomeYield2.26%(5y avg 1.52%)Payout29.39%sustainable
Stop $33.79Target $36.95(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$41.06+14.9%17 analysts
$36.95our TP
$35.72price
$41.06mean
$51

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $35.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.9Qual8.4Grw6.8Mom4.7Sent6.7Ins3.9Peer4.7Tech7.4Risk5.56.4OVERALL

Recent Developments — Match Group, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • Apr 30, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: . Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 29, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Match Group, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-21T17:11:27Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.4 in RISK_OFF)
Earnings estimates trending UP
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.5
P/E (Fwd)8.3
Mkt Cap$8.2B
EV/EBITDA10.1
Profit Mgn18.8%
ROE—
Rev Growth3.9%
Beta1.36
Dividend2.26%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.35bearish
IV38%normal
Max Pain$18-51.0% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-30Item 5.02MEDIUM
    . Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 29, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Match Group, Inc.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-05Item 5.02MEDIUM
    MATCH GROUP, INC. | | | By: | /s/ Sean Edgett | | Sean Edgett | | Chief Legal Officer and Secretary Date: March 5, 2026
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Exhibit Number | Description [99.1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/891103/000089110326000022/mtch8-k20260217ex991.htm) | [Press Release dated February 17, 2026.](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/891103/000089110326000022/mtch8-k20260217ex991.htm) 104 | Inline XBRL for the cover pa...
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $34.83Resistance $38.94

Price Targets

$34
$37
A.Upside+3.4%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.7% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTCH stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $35.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $36.95 (+3.4%), stop $33.79 (−5.7%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MTCH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.95 (+2.7% upside). Target $36.95 (+3.4%), stop $33.79 (−5.7%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $33.79.

What are the risks of investing in MTCH?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MTCH overvalued or undervalued?

Match Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.5 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MTCH?

27 analysts cover MTCH with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $41.

What does Match Group, Inc. do?Match Group, Inc., through its portfolio companies, is a leading provider of digital technologies designed...

Match Group, Inc., through its portfolio companies, is a leading provider of digital technologies designed to

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