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MTUSMetallus Inc.Sell5.0·$18.87+1.62%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Metallus screens cheap on a forward basis and has beaten EPS estimates in most recent quarters, but quality sits below the engine's floor and momentum shows capitulation-level weakness.

Thesis pillars

  • Capitulation Level MomentumStable
  • Quality Below FloorStable
  • Attractive Forward ValuationStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Metallus Inc. (MTUS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Steel

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.87: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Metallus manufactures alloy, carbon and micro-alloy steel bars, seamless mechanical tubing and precision components at its Canton, Ohio complex, serving industrial, automotive, aerospace/defense and energy end-markets with approximately 1.2 million tons of annual melt capacity.... Read more

$18.87+1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#12 of 14 Steel
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-6.03%
Stop $17.55Target $19.12(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$22.50+19.2%2 analysts
$19.12our TP
$18.87price
$22.50mean
$24

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.87: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 30d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202630d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (1.4% upside)
Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)262.7
P/E (Fwd)13.8
Mkt Cap$766M
EV/EBITDA10.3
Profit Mgn0.2%
ROE0.4%
Rev Growth9.9%
Beta1.36
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV65%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomersingle customer11%
    10-K Item 1: 'This customer represented 10.6% of net sales.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roe
0.1
Net Margin
0.1
Roa
0.3
Operating Margin
1.0
Moat
5.8
Current Ratio
6.2
Piotroski F
8.9
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -1594% FCF/NIStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9Quality concerns
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 30d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.40Resistance $21.21

Price Targets

$18
$19
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.4% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)
! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (30d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTUS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.87: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $17.55. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MTUS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.12 (+1.3% upside). Prior stop was $17.55. Stop-loss: $17.55.

What are the risks of investing in MTUS?

Target reached (1.4% upside); Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).

Is MTUS overvalued or undervalued?

Metallus Inc. trades at a P/E of 262.7 (forward 13.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MTUS?

8 analysts cover MTUS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $23.

What does Metallus Inc. do?Metallus manufactures alloy, carbon and micro-alloy steel bars, seamless mechanical tubing and precision components at...

Metallus manufactures alloy, carbon and micro-alloy steel bars, seamless mechanical tubing and precision components at its Canton, Ohio complex, serving industrial, automotive, aerospace/defense and energy end-markets with approximately 1.2 million tons of annual melt capacity. The company also holds a $99.75 million U.S. Army agreement to expand munitions-production infrastructure, having received $85.6 million in funding through December 2025. One customer represented 10.6% of Metallus's 2025 net sales, with no other customer exceeding 10%.

Related stocks: NWPX (NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.) · SIM (Grupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V.) · CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.) · WS (Worthington Steel, Inc.) · SID (Companhia Siderurgica Nacional )
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