Value
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 5.4 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.39
- ▸Attractively valued
MTUS · Why this verdict
Why Metallus (MTUS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock shows capitulation-level technical weakness, with a low RSI reading and price below its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover above 40 while price stabilizes above key support. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 200-day moving average itself is still rising, which the engine notes suggests this is a pullback within an intact uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal. | ||
Fundamental quality is deeply impaired, with a quality score below the engine's 4.0 floor and an extreme negative earnings-quality red flag on free cash flow versus net income. Quality breakdown | The quality score should rise above 4.0 within the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 suggests balance-sheet fundamentals are healthier than the cash-flow red flag alone implies. | ||
Despite quality and momentum concerns, the stock trades at an attractive forward valuation of about 13.1x forward earnings. Valuation breakdown | The value score should stay above 6.0 as the valuation discount persists or the price re-rates upward. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap valuation in a cyclical steel producer with a deeply negative cash-flow-quality flag can reflect a genuine value trap rather than an overlooked opportunity. | ||
The company has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters. Earnings | The beat pattern should continue with at least one more beat in the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average surprise percentage is deeply negative because of one severe miss, showing that when the company misses, it misses by a wide margin. | ||
The stock shows capitulation-level technical weakness, with a low RSI reading and price below its 200-day moving average.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover above 40 while price stabilizes above key support.
CounterThe 200-day moving average itself is still rising, which the engine notes suggests this is a pullback within an intact uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
Fundamental quality is deeply impaired, with a quality score below the engine's 4.0 floor and an extreme negative earnings-quality red flag on free cash flow versus net income.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score should rise above 4.0 within the next 2 quarters.
CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 suggests balance-sheet fundamentals are healthier than the cash-flow red flag alone implies.
Despite quality and momentum concerns, the stock trades at an attractive forward valuation of about 13.1x forward earnings.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should stay above 6.0 as the valuation discount persists or the price re-rates upward.
CounterCheap valuation in a cyclical steel producer with a deeply negative cash-flow-quality flag can reflect a genuine value trap rather than an overlooked opportunity.
The company has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat pattern should continue with at least one more beat in the next 2 quarters.
CounterThe average surprise percentage is deeply negative because of one severe miss, showing that when the company misses, it misses by a wide margin.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Metallus screens cheap on a forward basis and has beaten EPS estimates in most recent quarters, but quality sits below the engine's floor and momentum shows capitulation-level weakness.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.1 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.0 |
| Net margin | 0.1 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -1594% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 4.0 |
| volatility | 2.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 2.5 |
| beta | 5.5 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 65%
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.16
Upside
+1.4%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.36>1.3, MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.3 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.3, Technical at 6.7, and Sentiment at 6.2; the weakest are Quality at 2.5, Catalyst at 4.2, and Momentum at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.16 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 within 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Capitulation Level Momentum
Trip ifRSI falls below 20 within 30 days while the 200-day moving average slope turns negative.
- P3Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 20x from the current 13.1x without at least a 15% price increase.
- P4Earnings Beat Pattern
Trip ifThe company misses EPS estimates in at least 2 of its next 4 reported quarters.