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MSMorgan StanleyHold6.1·$188.85
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Morgan Stanley has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats averaging 16.7% positive surprise and earns strong margins of 25%, but trades above analyst targets with a negative asymmetry ratio and an earnings report due in 29 days that could serve as a catalyst in either direction.

Thesis pillars

  • Leverage Near 52 Week High↑Improving
  • Earnings Beat Streak Catalyst→Stable
  • High Quality Margins→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Morgan Stanley (MS) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5QualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $188.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5.

Morgan Stanley is a global financial services firm serving corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals through three segments: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management. The firm operates globally from New York headquarters and... Read more

$188.85+0.5% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#17 of 50 Capital Markets
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield2.42%(5y avg 2.83%)Payout32.31%sustainable
Stop $178.07Analyst target $189.82(−10% haircut)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst consensus$210.91+11.7%22 analysts
$189.82Analyst target
$188.85price
$210.91mean
$262

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $188.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jan 14, 202776d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.9 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.1
P/E (Fwd)13.9
Mkt Cap$297.3B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn25.6%
ROE—
Rev Growth10.8%
Beta1.21
Dividend2.42%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.25bullish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$110-41.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $175.37Resistance $192.13

Price Targets

$178
$190
A.Upside+0.5%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.5% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-01-14 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $188.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $189.82 (+0.5%), stop $178.07 (−6.1%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MS stock price target?

Analyst target: $189.82 (+0.5% upside). Analyst target $189.82 (+0.5%), stop $178.07 (−6.1%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $178.07.

What are the risks of investing in MS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5.

Is MS overvalued or undervalued?

Morgan Stanley trades at a P/E of 15.1 (forward 13.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MS?

33 analysts cover MS with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $211.

What does Morgan Stanley do?Morgan Stanley is a global financial services firm serving corporations, governments, financial institutions, and...

Morgan Stanley is a global financial services firm serving corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals through three segments: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management. The firm operates globally from New York headquarters and offices in London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, and Hong Kong, regulated by the Federal Reserve as a financial holding company.

Related stocks: GS (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)) · SCHW (Charles Schwab Corporation (The) · IBKR (Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.) · HOOD (Robinhood Markets, Inc.)
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