Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $45.52: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.
Moderna is an mRNA medicine company with three commercial products: Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE (COVID vaccines) and mRESVIA (RSV vaccine), generating $1.9B in 2025 total revenue. Revenue is primarily from COVID vaccine sales to governments and health authorities; the company also... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $45.52: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 3.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 3/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductCOVID vaccines10-K Item 1: 'we achieved total revenue of $1.9 billion, largely from sales of our COVID vaccines'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -29.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -145.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $45.52: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $42.73. Score 3.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $55.08 (+21.3% upside). Prior stop was $42.73. Stop-loss: $42.73.
Concentration risk — Product: COVID vaccines; Target reached (-17.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).
Moderna, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 3.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
30 analysts cover MRNA with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $41.
What does Moderna, Inc. do?Moderna is an mRNA medicine company with three commercial products: Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE (COVID vaccines) and mRESVIA...
Moderna is an mRNA medicine company with three commercial products: Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE (COVID vaccines) and mRESVIA (RSV vaccine), generating $1.9B in 2025 total revenue. Revenue is primarily from COVID vaccine sales to governments and health authorities; the company also has a 35-program pipeline spanning oncology, rare disease, and infectious disease.