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MOVMovado Group Inc.Sell5.7·$31.11
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Movado is recovering from a long run of earnings misses with three straight beats, converts earnings to cash well and trades at an attractive multiple with a 5.1% dividend, though growth is weak and options positioning is bearish.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Turnaround Streak→Stable
  • Strong Cash Conversion Quality→Stable
  • Attractive Valuation And Dividend→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 19, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Movado Group Inc. (MOV) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Luxury Goods

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $31.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Weak growth.

Movado Group designs, sources, markets and distributes watches and accessories worldwide under owned brands including Movado, Concord, Ebel, Olivia Burton and MVMT, plus licensed brands such as Coach, Tommy Hilfiger, Hugo Boss, Lacoste and Calvin Klein. Revenue comes from... Read more

$31.11+29.8% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#5 of 6 Luxury Goods
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield7.77%
IncomeYield5.14%(5y avg 4.55%)Payout80.11%at-risk
Stop $29.71Analyst target $40.38(−15% haircut)A.R:R 5.8:1
Analyst consensus$47.50+52.7%2 analysts
$40.38Analyst target
$31.11price
$47.50mean
$50

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $31.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Movado Group Inc.

About Movado Group Inc.

Movado Group markets a portfolio of five owned watch brands, including Movado, Concord, Ebel, Olivia Burton and MVMT, alongside licensed brands Coach, Tommy Hilfiger, Hugo Boss, Lacoste and Calvin Klein, plus a newly signed Kate Spade New York license set to launch its first collection in spring 2027. The company also produces jewelry and accessories under most of its brands, extending its owned and licensed trademarks beyond timepieces. Movado's common stock trades on the NYSE under its own ticker, MOV, tying its equity performance directly to the health of its watch and accessories portfolio.

Movado earns revenue primarily through wholesale distribution to department stores, specialty retailers and e-commerce partners, supplemented by direct-to-consumer sales through its MVMT online channel. Licensing agreements with Coach, Tommy Hilfiger, Hugo Boss, Lacoste, Calvin Klein and Kate Spade New York require Movado to pay royalties tied to net sales of each licensed brand, while its owned brands, including the flagship Movado name and the Swiss-manufactured Ebel and Concord lines, carry no royalty obligation. Movado states it is selective about licensing partners, entering only long-term agreements with brands it believes hold strong positions in their categories, a strategy that has added six licensed names to its portfolio over more than two decades. The company's sourcing footprint reflects its Swiss heritage in premium lines alongside lower-cost sourcing for its fashion-oriented MVMT and Olivia Burton brands.

Show full overview

Movado's reliance on licensed brands creates a structural dependency the company does not fully control: contracts with Coach, Tommy Hilfiger, Hugo Boss, Lacoste and Calvin Klein must be renewed or renegotiated on schedules set by the licensors, and the newly announced Kate Spade New York license does not begin shipping product until spring 2027, leaving a gap between signing and revenue contribution. Because roughly half of the company's active brands are licensed rather than owned, any non-renewal or licensor-driven strategy shift could remove a meaningful slice of Movado's addressable brand portfolio with limited notice.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Luxury Goods

From Movado Group Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 24, 202625d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 30%
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.2
P/E (Fwd)17.0
Mkt Cap$694M
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn6.0%
ROE8.4%
Rev Growth4.9%
Beta0.90
Dividend5.14%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C10.00bearish
IV67%elevated
Max Pain$25-19.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.7
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
1.6
Volume
2.2
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Obv
6.3
Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 5.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 25d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $30.63Resistance $34.44

Price Targets

$30
$40
A.Upside+29.8%
A.R:R5.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-24 (25d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MOV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $31.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $29.71. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MOV stock price target?

Analyst target: $40.38 (+29.8% upside). Prior stop was $29.71. Stop-loss: $29.71.

What are the risks of investing in MOV?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is MOV overvalued or undervalued?

Movado Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.2 (forward 17.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MOV?

6 analysts cover MOV with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Movado Group Inc. do?Movado Group designs, sources, markets and distributes watches and accessories worldwide under owned brands including...

Movado Group designs, sources, markets and distributes watches and accessories worldwide under owned brands including Movado, Concord, Ebel, Olivia Burton and MVMT, plus licensed brands such as Coach, Tommy Hilfiger, Hugo Boss, Lacoste and Calvin Klein. Revenue comes from wholesale and retail distribution across nearly every category of the watch industry. A newly signed Kate Spade New York license, launching in 2027, adds another licensed brand to its portfolio.

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