Value
8.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.3 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
MOV · Why this verdict
Why Movado Group (MOV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Movado is recovering from a long run of earnings misses with three straight beats, converts earnings to cash well and trades at an attractive multiple with a 5.1% dividend, though growth is weak and options positioning is bearish.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a 50.4% beat in the latest quarter, after five straight misses before that. Earnings track record | EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates at the 24 November 2026 report. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 357% beat came off a tiny $0.07 estimate, and the average surprise of 96.6% overstates how stable earnings are after a long miss streak. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 130% FCF to net income and the Piotroski F-Score is 9 of 9, supporting the dividend and balance sheet. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should stay above net income over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on equity and net margin score only about 3 out of 10, so the quality of the underlying profit is mediocre. | ||
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 17.2x, a PEG of 0.06 and a 5.1% dividend. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth should keep the PEG below 1.0 while the dividend is maintained. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.06 relies on a steep earnings rebound, and a 5.1% yield may signal the market doubts the payout. | ||
Revenue is growing modestly, with $169.8M in the July 2026 quarter against $161.8M a year earlier, about 4.9%. Revenue quarters | Revenue should keep growing year over year toward the $195.3M next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth scores low with confidence of only 0.33, and the 4.9% rate may not offset cost pressure in a consumer-cyclical luxury business. | ||
Price of $31.46 sits 28.3% below the $40.38 analyst target, against 5.3% downside to the $30.09 stop, a reward-to-risk of 5.4. Upside pct | Price should move toward the analyst target if earnings beats continue. | →Stable |
| CounterThe put/call ratio is elevated at 3.33 and momentum is negative with falling on-balance volume, so traders are positioned for declines. | ||
The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a 50.4% beat in the latest quarter, after five straight misses before that.
→StableEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates at the 24 November 2026 report.
CounterThe 357% beat came off a tiny $0.07 estimate, and the average surprise of 96.6% overstates how stable earnings are after a long miss streak.
Cash conversion is excellent at 130% FCF to net income and the Piotroski F-Score is 9 of 9, supporting the dividend and balance sheet.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should stay above net income over the next 12 months.
CounterReturn on equity and net margin score only about 3 out of 10, so the quality of the underlying profit is mediocre.
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 17.2x, a PEG of 0.06 and a 5.1% dividend.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should keep the PEG below 1.0 while the dividend is maintained.
CounterA PEG of 0.06 relies on a steep earnings rebound, and a 5.1% yield may signal the market doubts the payout.
Revenue is growing modestly, with $169.8M in the July 2026 quarter against $161.8M a year earlier, about 4.9%.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Revenue should keep growing year over year toward the $195.3M next-quarter estimate.
CounterGrowth scores low with confidence of only 0.33, and the 4.9% rate may not offset cost pressure in a consumer-cyclical luxury business.
Price of $31.46 sits 28.3% below the $40.38 analyst target, against 5.3% downside to the $30.09 stop, a reward-to-risk of 5.4.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the analyst target if earnings beats continue.
CounterThe put/call ratio is elevated at 3.33 and momentum is negative with falling on-balance volume, so traders are positioned for declines.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.8 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 7.2 |
| Op margin | 3.5 |
| Net margin | 3.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.7 |
| FCF quality | 9.3 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 130% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
3.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.7 |
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.6 |
| OBV | 6.3 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 53%
Insider
5.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 8.7 |
| 52w position | 5.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 6.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 10.00
- ▸High IV: 67%
- ▸Above max pain $25
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 5.1%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:5.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.84
Upside
+29.8%
Downside
5.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 5.84 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Technical at 7.6, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Growth at 3.7, Momentum at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.84 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Turnaround Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 80% from the current 130%.
- P3Attractive Valuation And Dividend
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 25x from the current 17.2x.
- P4Modest Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $161.8M, the level of a year earlier.
- P5Analyst Upside Versus Bearish Options
Trip ifPrice falls below the $30.09 stop, a drop of more than 4.4% from $31.46.