Value
7.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.8 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
MOV · Why this verdict
Why Movado Group (MOV) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has missed EPS estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, raising doubt about the reliability of consensus estimates. Earnings | The company should return to a beat or inline pattern over its next 2 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA maximal Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 suggests strong balance-sheet fundamentals persist despite the recent estimate misses. | ||
The stock's earnings growth relative to price implies significant undervaluation, with a PEG ratio of just 0.05. Valuation breakdown | The valuation gap should close via price appreciation toward the analyst-based take-profit target over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA thin analyst upside margin of just 7.4% suggests limited re-rating potential is already priced in. | ||
Momentum has broken down, with the engine's momentum score well below its required threshold and volume showing distribution. Warnings | The momentum score should recover above its 4.5 threshold as selling pressure eases. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice remains above its 200-day moving average, so the longer-term trend is still technically intact despite the momentum score decline. | ||
Cash generation remains excellent, with free cash flow at 121% of net income and a maximal Piotroski F-Score. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion should stay above 100% of net income over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA yield-trap warning flags that the dividend may be unsafe despite the currently strong cash conversion figure. | ||
The company has missed EPS estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, raising doubt about the reliability of consensus estimates.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should return to a beat or inline pattern over its next 2 reported quarters.
CounterA maximal Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 suggests strong balance-sheet fundamentals persist despite the recent estimate misses.
The stock's earnings growth relative to price implies significant undervaluation, with a PEG ratio of just 0.05.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation gap should close via price appreciation toward the analyst-based take-profit target over 12 months.
CounterA thin analyst upside margin of just 7.4% suggests limited re-rating potential is already priced in.
Momentum has broken down, with the engine's momentum score well below its required threshold and volume showing distribution.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The momentum score should recover above its 4.5 threshold as selling pressure eases.
CounterPrice remains above its 200-day moving average, so the longer-term trend is still technically intact despite the momentum score decline.
Cash generation remains excellent, with free cash flow at 121% of net income and a maximal Piotroski F-Score.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion should stay above 100% of net income over the next four quarters.
CounterA yield-trap warning flags that the dividend may be unsafe despite the currently strong cash conversion figure.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Movado's deep PEG-based valuation and strong cash conversion are offset by a broken momentum gate and back-to-back earnings misses, leaving thin margin for error.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.2 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 7.0 |
| Op margin | 2.0 |
| Net margin | 2.4 |
| Current ratio | 8.4 |
| FCF quality | 9.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 121% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 2.9 |
Technical
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.2 |
| support resistance | 7.5 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 1.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸High IV: 74%
- ▸Above max pain $22
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 4.2%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.59
Upside
+9.9%
Downside
6.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5. Top dim: Technical at 8.0; weakest: Momentum at 2.9. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.0, Value at 7.2, and Sentiment at 6.2; the weakest are Momentum at 2.9, Peer rank at 4.4, and Growth at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.59 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Peg Value Discount
Trip ifStock price declines more than 10% over the next 2 quarters despite the sub-0.10 PEG ratio.
- P2Momentum Gate Breakdown
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 4.5 for 3 consecutive quarters.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe company misses EPS estimates for at least 2 additional consecutive quarters.
- P4Strong Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion ratio falls below 80% in the next reported fiscal year.