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MATWMatthews International CorporatSell4.4·$26.21-2.93%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Matthews International screens with a favorable risk-reward setup and exceptional cash conversion, but a sharp revenue decline and elevated bearish options and short positioning keep the quality-floor exit signal in place.

Thesis pillars

  • Favorable Risk RewardStable
  • Sharp Revenue DeclineStable
  • Exceptional Cash ConversionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Matthews International Corporat (MATW) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthShortModerate Confidence

Industrials · Conglomerates

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.21: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality.

The Company's current backlog is expected to be mostly filled in fiscal 2026. Cremation and incineration equipment sales backlogs vary in a range of four to six months of sales. Backlogs vary in a range of approximately nine to twelve months of sales for mausoleums. Backlogs are... Read more

$26.21+23.2% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#16 of 19 Conglomerates
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield9.69%
IncomeYield3.82%(5y avg 3.20%)Payout336.67%at-risk
Stop $24.39Target $32.30(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$38.00+45.0%2 analysts
$32.30our TP
$26.21price
$38.00mean
$40

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.21: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202628d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)88.4
P/E (Fwd)21.5
Mkt Cap$827M
EV/EBITDA19.4
Profit Mgn0.8%
ROE2.1%
Rev Growth-39.5%
Beta1.08
Dividend3.82%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.07bullish
IV60%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -39.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -40%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
2.3
Value Rank
4.3

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Operating Margin
0.2
Net Margin
0.4
Roa
0.5
Roe
0.7
Gross Margin
3.4
Moat
3.9
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.9
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 824% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.8>=5.5A.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 28d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $24.60Resistance $27.61

Price Targets

$24
$32
A.Upside+23.2%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (28d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MATW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.21: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $24.39. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MATW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.30 (+23.2% upside). Prior stop was $24.39. Stop-loss: $24.39.

What are the risks of investing in MATW?

Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is MATW overvalued or undervalued?

Matthews International Corporat trades at a P/E of 88.4 (forward 21.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MATW?

8 analysts cover MATW with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $38.

What does Matthews International Corporat do?The Company's current backlog is expected to be mostly filled in fiscal 2026. Cremation and incineration equipment...

The Company's current backlog is expected to be mostly filled in fiscal 2026. Cremation and incineration equipment sales backlogs vary in a range of four to six months of sales. Backlogs vary in a range of approximately nine to twelve months of sales for mausoleums. Backlogs are generally in excess of a year for purpose-built machinery projects.

Related stocks: PAM (Pampa Energia S.A.) · DLX (Deluxe Corporation) · GHC (Graham Holdings Company) · SEB (Seaboard Corporation) · OTTR (Otter Tail Corporation)
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