This regional bank offers a deeply discounted valuation at a forward P/E of 9.3 times with a PEG of 0.05 and 34% revenue growth that leads its peer group, but two of the four most recent quarters missed consensus and the risk/reward at the current price is unfavorable — arguing for patience until execution consistency is demonstrated.
Thesis pillars
- Deeply Discounted Valuation↓Deteriorating
- Absent Competitive Moat↓Deteriorating
- Industry Leading Revenue Growth↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. (LOB) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $34.66 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: SBA-guaranteed loans.
Live Oak Bancshares operates Live Oak Banking Company, a Wilmington, North Carolina-based online bank that originates loans predominantly guaranteed by the U.S. Small Business Administration and USDA rural-lending programs, without traditional branch locations. The company earns... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $34.66 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: SBA-guaranteed loans. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (positive momentum, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.
About Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.
About Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.
Live Oak Bancshares operates Live Oak Banking Company, a North Carolina-chartered online bank whose total assets exceed $10 billion, triggering heightened regulatory requirements in fiscal 2025. The Company predominantly originates loans partially guaranteed by the U.S. Small Business Administration and, to a lesser extent, USDA rural-lending programs, operating nationally with no traditional branch network and reporting as one operating segment. Live Oak Bank is supervised by the FDIC, the North Carolina Commissioner of Banks, and the Federal Reserve as Bancshares' holding-company regulator.
Live Oak earns revenue primarily through gains on the sale of the guaranteed portion of SBA 7(a) loans, which carry a 75% government guarantee, and USDA-guaranteed loans, which carry guarantees of 60% to 80% depending on loan size and type; the Bank retains credit risk on the non-guaranteed portion and expects gains on loan sales to remain a meaningful revenue component in 2026. Underwriting is organized around carefully selected industry verticals rather than a branch footprint, supported by a technology-based origination platform that substitutes for physical locations. The Company competes against large national banks, community banks and credit unions, and non-bank fintech and marketplace lenders that face fewer regulatory restrictions. Live Oak has also stated it is less able to diversify its lending risks than larger financial institutions given its vertical-focused, SBA-driven origination model.
Show full overview
Live Oak's revenue model is structurally tied to a single federal program: loss of its status as an SBA Preferred Lender, or a change in the government guarantee attached to SBA 7(a) loans, would remove the premium and servicing income stream the Company expects to be a meaningful part of 2026 revenue. The 10-K also flags that a prolonged U.S. government shutdown or a federal default would impede the Company's ability to originate SBA loans and sell them in the secondary market. Separately, the Company disclosed in November 2025 that it would restate financial statements for 2024, 2023 and 2022 to correct its statements of cash flows.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Live Oak Bancshares (NYSE:LOB) Posts Better-Than-Expected Sales In Q2 CY2026 - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Live Oak Bancshares (NYSE:LOB) Posts Better-Than-Expected Sales In Q2 CY2026 - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS Live Oak Bancshares (NYSE:LOB) Posts Better-Than-Expected Sales In Q2 CY2026 - FinancialContent — FinancialContent positive
- NEWS Earnings Flash (LOB) Live Oak Bancshares Posts Q2 EPS $0.74, vs. FactSet Est of $0.65 - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS LIVE OAK BANCSHARES ($LOB) Releases Q2 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:25Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfolioSBA-guaranteed loans10-K Item 1: 'The Company predominantly originates loans partially guaranteed by the U.S. Small Business Administration (the “SBA”)'
- MEDIUMregulatorybanks with total assets exceeding $10 billion10-K Item 1A: 'We are subject to heightened regulatory requirements because our total assets exceed $10 billion.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-07-02Item 5.02LOWMatthew S. Diffley joined as Chief Accounting Officer and was appointed Principal Accounting Officer effective July 1, 2026, replacing interim PAO Walter J. Phifer. Prior SVP Controller at Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida.SEC filing →
- 2026-06-18Item 5.02MEDIUMCAO J. Wesley Sutherland departed the role; CFO Walter J. Phifer assumed interim Principal Accounting Officer duties during an external search. Sutherland remains as Senior Advisor through a planned retirement around September 30, 2026.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-22Item 5.02LOWShareholders approved the 2026 Omnibus Stock Incentive Plan and 2026 Employee Stock Purchase Plan at the May 19, 2026 annual meeting, as described in the April 2, 2026 proxy statement.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $34.66 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: SBA-guaranteed loans. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $32.64. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $34.42 reached (−0.7% from $34.66); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $32.64. Stop-loss: $32.64.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: SBA-guaranteed loans; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).
Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.3 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover LOB with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $41.
What does Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. do?Live Oak Bancshares operates Live Oak Banking Company, a Wilmington, North Carolina-based online bank that originates...
Live Oak Bancshares operates Live Oak Banking Company, a Wilmington, North Carolina-based online bank that originates loans predominantly guaranteed by the U.S. Small Business Administration and USDA rural-lending programs, without traditional branch locations. The company earns revenue through interest income and gains on selling the guaranteed portion of these loans in the secondary market, with total assets exceeding $10 billion. Its technology-based origination platform and industry-vertical underwriting expertise differentiate it from larger, branch-based competitors.