Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
LOB · Why this verdict
Why Live Oak Bancshares (LOB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
This regional bank offers a deeply discounted valuation at a forward P/E of 9.3 times with a PEG of 0.05 and 34% revenue growth that leads its peer group, but two of the four most recent quarters missed consensus and the risk/reward at the current price is unfavorable — arguing for patience until execution consistency is demonstrated.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9.3 times and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.05, the stock screens as deeply discounted relative to its growth rate — offering potential value if the growth trajectory holds. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings estimates hold or rise, keeping the PEG below 0.2 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterTwo of the four most recent quarterly results missed consensus estimates, which may prompt analysts to trim forward numbers; downward revisions would inflate the effective forward multiple and erode the apparent cheapness. | ||
The quality assessment identifies no competitive moat, which means sustaining above-average returns through a credit cycle is less certain — strong growth today may not compound as reliably without durable pricing power or switching costs. Quality breakdown | Return on equity sustains above 12% for 4 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the business model generates durable returns even without a formally rated moat. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterNet margins of 25% and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 suggest the business is financially sound; if the bank's niche lending model continues to expand, structural advantages may not be necessary to sustain above-average returns in the near term. | ||
Revenue is expanding at 34% year over year, a rate that places this bank at the top of its regional peer group on growth metrics and suggests the business is gaining meaningful share. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 20% for each of the next 2 reported quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume indicates net selling pressure has accompanied the stock's rise, suggesting institutional investors may not be fully convinced the 34% growth rate is durable through a full credit cycle. | ||
Two consecutive quarterly results — the second and third most recent quarters — missed analyst consensus, reflecting a pattern of inconsistent delivery that raises questions about the reliability of management guidance. Earnings | EPS surprise exceeds 5% for each of the next 2 consecutive reported quarters, demonstrating a return to positive delivery. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced a 9.85% positive surprise, suggesting the miss streak may already be breaking; if that beat signals a genuine turn in execution quality, the prior two misses may prove transitory. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9.3 times and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.05, the stock screens as deeply discounted relative to its growth rate — offering potential value if the growth trajectory holds.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates hold or rise, keeping the PEG below 0.2 over the next 12 months.
CounterTwo of the four most recent quarterly results missed consensus estimates, which may prompt analysts to trim forward numbers; downward revisions would inflate the effective forward multiple and erode the apparent cheapness.
The quality assessment identifies no competitive moat, which means sustaining above-average returns through a credit cycle is less certain — strong growth today may not compound as reliably without durable pricing power or switching costs.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity sustains above 12% for 4 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the business model generates durable returns even without a formally rated moat.
CounterNet margins of 25% and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 suggest the business is financially sound; if the bank's niche lending model continues to expand, structural advantages may not be necessary to sustain above-average returns in the near term.
Revenue is expanding at 34% year over year, a rate that places this bank at the top of its regional peer group on growth metrics and suggests the business is gaining meaningful share.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 20% for each of the next 2 reported quarters.
CounterFalling on-balance volume indicates net selling pressure has accompanied the stock's rise, suggesting institutional investors may not be fully convinced the 34% growth rate is durable through a full credit cycle.
Two consecutive quarterly results — the second and third most recent quarters — missed analyst consensus, reflecting a pattern of inconsistent delivery that raises questions about the reliability of management guidance.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise exceeds 5% for each of the next 2 consecutive reported quarters, demonstrating a return to positive delivery.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced a 9.85% positive surprise, suggesting the miss streak may already be breaking; if that beat signals a genuine turn in execution quality, the prior two misses may prove transitory.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.7 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 26%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 8.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.4 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $4,896,948 (0.305% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 0.9 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 6.8 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.9 |
| beta | 3.5 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High IV: 69%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.9 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (4)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.30%=HEAVY
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.12
Upside
-0.7%
Downside
5.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.94>1.3, MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 8.0; weakest: Insider at 3.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Technical at 6.3, and Growth at 6.0; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Peer rank at 3.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deeply Discounted Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 15x due to downward earnings estimate revisions.
- P2Industry Leading Revenue Growth
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth falls below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Earnings Delivery Inconsistency
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for each of the next 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P4Absent Competitive Moat
Trip ifReturn on equity rises above 12% for 4 consecutive quarters.