Li Auto Inc. (LI) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the LI stock price target?

Take-profit $19.00 (+7.4% upside). Prior stop was $16.76.

Q: Is LI overvalued or undervalued?

Li Auto Inc. trades at a P/E of 111.4 (forward 20.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about LI?

36 analysts cover LI with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $21.

Falling Knife setup

SellHigh ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-02

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.69: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

$17.69+7.4% A.UpsideScore 3.6/10#16 of 16 Auto Manufacturers

Stop $16.76Target $19.00(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.4:1

Analyst target$21.11+19.3%27 analysts

$19.00our TP

$17.69price

$21.11mean

$15

$36

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)111.4

P/E (Fwd)20.1

Mkt Cap$18.2B

EV/EBITDA-11.1

Profit Mgn1.0%

ROE1.6%

Rev Growth-35.0%

Beta0.58

DividendNone

Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C1.03bearish

IV59%elevated

Max Pain$22+24.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value5.915%0.89

Quality1.615%0.24

Growth0.015%0.00

Momentum1.410%0.14

Sentiment6.510%0.65

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank3.510%0.35

Technical Setup6.05%0.30

Risk Profile6.65%0.33

Catalyst3.45%0.17

Overall (Σ contributions)3.57

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -35.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

0.0

Earnings Growth

0.0

Declining revenue: -35%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

1.0

Macd

1.5

Rsi

3.5

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roa

0.0

Gross Margin

0.0

Operating Margin

0.0

Fcf Quality

0.0

Roe

0.5

Net Margin

0.5

Piotroski F

2.2

Moat

5.0

Current Ratio

6.4

Earnings quality RED FLAG: -997% FCF/NINo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History

0.0

Surprise Avg

0.0

Erm

5.0

Earnings Timing

5.0

News Activity

7.0

Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 11 days

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

0.0

Value Rank

4.0

Quality Rank

4.8

GatesMomentum 1.4<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate

RSI

31 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $17.20Resistance $19.64

Price Targets

$17

$19

A.Upside+7.4%

A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

! Momentum score 1.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

1/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-12 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is LI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.69: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $16.76. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

What is the LI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.00 (+7.4% upside). Prior stop was $16.76. Stop-loss: $16.76.

What are the risks of investing in LI?

Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is LI overvalued or undervalued?

Li Auto Inc. trades at a P/E of 111.4 (forward 20.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LI?

36 analysts cover LI with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Li Auto Inc. do?Li Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. The company designs, develops,...

Li Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. The company designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. Its product line comprises multi-purpose vehicles and sport utility vehicles. The company offers sales and after sales management, and technology development and corporate management services, as well as manufacturing equipment. It offers its products through online and offline channels. The company was formerly known as Leading Ideal Inc. and changed its name to Li Auto Inc. in July 2020. Li Auto Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.