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VFSVinFast Auto Ltd.Sell5.9·$3.36
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

VinFast Auto is a Vietnamese electric vehicle startup with 42% revenue growth and 91% analyst upside, but it has missed earnings in all four recent quarters, burns cash with negative free cash flow, carries leverage at 5.5x debt-to-equity, and has a Piotroski F-Score of just 2/9, placing it firmly below minimum quality thresholds.

Thesis pillars

  • Revenue Growth Ev Expansion→Stable
  • Cash Burn Piotroski Quality Floor↓Deteriorating
  • High Leverage Margin Compression↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

VinFast Auto Ltd. (VFS) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.36: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 2.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.24; Below-average business quality.

VinFast Auto Ltd. engages in the design and manufacture of electric vehicles (EV), e-scooters, and e-buses in Vietnam, Canada, India, Europe, and the United States. The company operates through three segments: namely Car, E-scooters and Ebus. It offers the design, development,... Read more

$3.36+40.8% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#2 of 12 Auto Manufacturers
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-817635.63%
Stop $3.12Analyst target $4.73(−15% haircut)A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst consensus$5.57+65.7%3 analysts
$4.73Analyst target
$3.36price
$5.57mean
$8

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.36: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 2.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.24; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on clean insider activity. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29

Recent Developments — VinFast Auto Ltd.

Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:52Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 24, 202625d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-2.5
Mkt Cap$7.9B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn-82.0%
ROE—
Rev Growth82.7%
Beta0.92
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.24bearish
IV178%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.4
52w Position
2.7

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Current Ratio
2.1
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
5.5
Cash-burning (FCF negative)Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
GatesINSIDER 504.55%=EXTREMEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 7.2>=5.5A.R:R 2.7 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 25d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $2.83Resistance $3.38

Price Targets

$3
$5
A.Upside+40.8%
A.R:R2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)
! Insider activity: 504.55%=extreme

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-24 (25d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VFS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.36: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 2.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.24; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $3.12. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VFS stock price target?

Analyst target: $4.73 (+40.8% upside). Prior stop was $3.12. Stop-loss: $3.12.

What are the risks of investing in VFS?

Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0).

Is VFS overvalued or undervalued?

VinFast Auto Ltd. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -2.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VFS?

9 analysts cover VFS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $6.

What does VinFast Auto Ltd. do?VinFast Auto Ltd. engages in the design and manufacture of electric vehicles (EV), e-scooters, and e-buses in Vietnam,...

VinFast Auto Ltd. engages in the design and manufacture of electric vehicles (EV), e-scooters, and e-buses in Vietnam, Canada, India, Europe, and the United States. The company operates through three segments: namely Car, E-scooters and Ebus. It offers the design, development, manufacturing and sales of e-scooters and related battery lease and battery charging service for cars, e-scooters, and Ebus. The company offers electric SUV, mini car EV, mid-size pickup electric truck, 7-seater MPV, E-bus, E-scooter, electric bike, and battery technology and solutions. The company has a strategic collaboration with Nvidia for the development of a next-generation level 4 autonomous driving program. VinFast Auto Ltd. is based in Hai phong, Vietnam. VinFast Auto Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Vingroup Joint Stock Company.

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