Leidos Holdings is a fundamentally sound government technology franchise — with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, attractive valuation at 8.7 times forward earnings, and a 31% return on equity — currently in a confirmed price downtrend that warrants caution before adding, with heavy federal customer concentration representing the key structural risk.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation Deep Discount↓Deteriorating
- Government Customer Concentration↑Improving
- Consistent Earnings Delivery→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026
Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Technology · Information Technology Services
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $139.60 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (87.0%).
Leidos provides scientific, engineering, and IT services to U.S. government and commercial customers across four segments: National Security & Digital (44% of revenue), Health & Civil (30%), Commercial & International (13%), and Defense Systems (13%), employing 47,000 people... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $139.60 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (87.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 91. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Leidos Holdings, Inc.
About Leidos Holdings, Inc.
National Security & Digital, Health & Civil, Commercial & International, and Defense Systems form Leidos's four operating segments, generating 87% of fiscal 2025 revenues from U.S. government contracts as prime or subcontractor. National Security & Digital accounted for 44% of total revenues and Health & Civil for 30%. Leidos employed 47,000 people globally as of January 2, 2026, with 53% holding U.S. security clearances, and spent $187 million on company-funded research and development — equal to 1.1% of consolidated revenues.
Leidos earns revenue primarily through federal contracts spanning digital modernization, classified software, cybersecurity, health examinations for the VA, air traffic control systems for the FAA, life sciences research for the NIH, and defense hardware for the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Special Operations Command. The Commercial & International segment has deployed over 30,000 security detection products across more than 120 countries. Revenue flows from cost-reimbursable, fixed-price, and time-and-materials contract structures, with multi-award IDIQ contracts becoming increasingly common under procurement reform. Principal competitors include Booz Allen Hamilton, SAIC, CACI International, L3Harris Technologies, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman.
Show full overview
The DoW and U.S. Intelligence Community together represented approximately 49% of Leidos's total revenues in fiscal 2025, a share consistent across three consecutive fiscal years. Because virtually all U.S. government contracts include unilateral termination rights, a continuing resolution or appropriations delay may constrain new award activity and freeze production rates. Budget caps reinstated under the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 established ceilings for fiscal 2024 and 2025, and an executive order titled 'Prioritizing the Warfighter in Defense Contracting' adds performance-linked restrictions on share buybacks and executive incentive pay — compressing the margin of error on large programs in the event of delivery shortfalls.
See also: Technology · Information Technology Services
From Leidos Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Leidos Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Leidos Holdings Inc. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Leidos Holdings Inc. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - marketwatch.com — marketwatch.com negative
- NEWS Leidos Holdings (LDOS) Is Up 12.8% After Winning US$717 Million ISR Support Task Order - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
- NEWS Leidos Holdings, Inc. $LDOS Stock Position Boosted by Empowered Funds LLC - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Leidos Holdings to Report Q1 Earnings: Here's What to Expect - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. government87%10-K Item 1A: 'revenues from contracts with the U.S. government...generated approximately 87% of our total revenue in fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023'
- MEDIUMCustomerDoW and U.S. Intelligence Community49%10-K Item 1A: 'Revenues under contracts with the DoW and U.S. Intelligence Community...represented approximately 49% of our total revenues for fiscal 2025 and 2023'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-06Item 5.02LOWOn May 1, 2026, at the Annual Meeting of Stockholders, Leidos stockholders approved the 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan and the 2026 Employee Stock Purchase Plan. No officer departures or appointments disclosed.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $139.60 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (87.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 91. Prior stop was $132.78. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $136.56 reached (−2.2% from $139.60); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $132.78. Stop-loss: $132.78.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (87.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).
Leidos Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.0 (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover LDOS with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $152.
What does Leidos Holdings, Inc. do?Leidos provides scientific, engineering, and IT services to U.S. government and commercial customers across four...
Leidos provides scientific, engineering, and IT services to U.S. government and commercial customers across four segments: National Security & Digital (44% of revenue), Health & Civil (30%), Commercial & International (13%), and Defense Systems (13%), employing 47,000 people globally. U.S. government contracts, including DoW and the Intelligence Community, generated approximately 87% of fiscal 2025 revenues.