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KGSKodiak Gas Services, Inc.Sell5.2·$69.19+3.08%
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Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Sell if holding. At $69.19, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.4%; Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale (82.8%).

Kodiak Gas Services is a leading provider of large horsepower contract compression infrastructure in the U.S., operating a fleet of 4.5 million horsepower (80% large horsepower) primarily in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale under fixed monthly term contracts. Revenue is... Read more

$69.19+3.4% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#18 of 30 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.24%
IncomeYield2.86%Payout247.37%at-risk
Stop $64.36Target $71.53(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$82.21+18.8%14 analysts
$71.53our TP
$69.19price
$82.21mean
$62
$94

Sell if holding. At $69.19, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.4%; Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale (82.8%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale (82.8%)
Thin upside margin: 3.4%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)88.3
P/E (Fwd)22.2
Mkt Cap$6.8B
EV/EBITDA12.4
Profit Mgn5.1%
ROE5.4%
Rev Growth4.9%
Beta0.88
Dividend2.86%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.89neutral
IV63%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicPermian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale83%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 82.8% of our compression assets were deployed in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale'
  • MEDIUMCustomerfour largest customers32%
    10-K Item 1: 'our four largest customers accounted for approximately 32%, 32%, and 33%, respectively, of our total revenues'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.9
Quality Rank
3.8
Growth Rank
5.2

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
7.6
Uptrend pullback (RSI 39) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $64.82Resistance $77.68

Price Targets

$64
$72
A.Upside+3.4%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KGS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $69.19, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.4%; Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale (82.8%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $64.36. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the KGS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $71.53 (+3.4% upside). Prior stop was $64.36. Stop-loss: $64.36.

What are the risks of investing in KGS?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale (82.8%); Thin upside margin: 3.4%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5.

Is KGS overvalued or undervalued?

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. trades at a P/E of 88.3 (forward 22.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KGS?

17 analysts cover KGS with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $82.

What does Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. do?Kodiak Gas Services is a leading provider of large horsepower contract compression infrastructure in the U.S.,...

Kodiak Gas Services is a leading provider of large horsepower contract compression infrastructure in the U.S., operating a fleet of 4.5 million horsepower (80% large horsepower) primarily in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale under fixed monthly term contracts. Revenue is earned from upstream and midstream customers under long-term agreements, typically 3-5 years for large horsepower, generating stable recurring cash flow. Approximately 82.8% of compression assets are deployed in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale.

Related stocks: USAC (USA Compression Partners, LP) · FTI (TechnipFMC plc) · WBI (WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC) · NESR (National Energy Services Reunit) · FLOC (Flowco Holdings Inc.)
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