IDEAYA Biosciences carries a 52% analyst-implied upside and favorable near-term price momentum, but the underlying business quality is well below the minimum threshold — with free cash flow burning at 25% of revenue, a Piotroski score of 2 out of 9, and a pipeline concentrated in a single lead asset — making this a high-variance speculative setup where quality concerns outweigh the return potential for most investors.
Thesis pillars
- Single Asset Pipeline Concentration→Stable
- Quality Below Minimum Floor→Stable
- Cash Burning No Profitability→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026
IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. (IDYA) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.96: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
IDEAYA Biosciences develops targeted cancer therapies (small molecule inhibitors and ADCs) for molecularly defined solid tumors, with nine clinical-stage candidates and no approved products. Lead asset darovasertib is in a Phase 2/3 trial for uveal melanoma; Servier paid $210... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.96: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.
About IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.
About IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.
IDEAYA Biosciences holds a nine-candidate clinical pipeline anchored by darovasertib, a PKC inhibitor in a registration-enabling Phase 2/3 trial (OptimUM-02) in first-line metastatic uveal melanoma, with 437 patients enrolled by December 2025. The FDA granted darovasertib Breakthrough Therapy designation for neoadjuvant primary uveal melanoma in March 2025. In August 2025, Servier paid $210 million upfront for ex-U.S. commercialization rights, with up to $320 million in potential milestones and mid-teen to low-twenties royalties.
IDEAYA generates revenue from collaboration and license payments rather than product sales — the Servier upfront dominated 2025 cash inflows — with net losses of $113.7 million for 2025 and an accumulated deficit of $736.5 million at year-end. The pipeline spans four focus areas: darovasertib in combination with Pfizer's crizotinib for uveal melanoma; ADC/DDR inhibitor combinations (IDE849 partnered with Hengrui Pharma, IDE034, IDE161); MTAP pathway inhibitors including IDE397 in combination with Gilead's Trodelvy; and next-generation therapies IDE574 and IDE275. GSK notified the company in December 2025 of its intent to terminate two collaboration agreements covering IDE705 and IDE275, effective March 9, 2026. Manufacturing is outsourced to third-party contract manufacturers; the company held $1.05 billion in cash and marketable securities at December 31, 2025.
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IDEAYA's near-term regulatory path is disproportionately tied to a single readout. The 10-K discloses that topline progression-free survival data from OptimUM-02 were expected in the first quarter of 2026, and that this data "may enable an accelerated approval filing in the United States." The company has never submitted an NDA; if OptimUM-02 fails to meet its primary endpoint or the FDA requires additional studies, the only remaining approval path depends on overall survival data from the same 437 enrolled patients — a multi-year delay that could weigh on the company's ability to sustain its clinical programs without further dilutive financing.
See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology
From IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS IDEAYA Biosciences Announces Updated Clinical Results for IDE849 and Plans for Phase 3 Registrational Trials — fiscal.ai Oct 23, 2026 positive
- NEWS IDEAYA Biosciences and Servier Announce Data From Three Clinical Trials at ESMO 2026 — fiscal.ai Oct 19, 2026 positive
- NEWS IDEAYA to Present Updated Melanoma Drug Data at Upcoming ESMO Congress — benzinga Oct 19, 2026 positive
- NEWS William Blair Initiates Coverage On IDEAYA Biosciences with Outperform Rating — benzinga Oct 16, 2026 positive
- NEWS Guggenheim Maintains Buy on IDEAYA Biosciences, Raises Price Target to $57 — benzinga Sep 9, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:40Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHpipelinedarovasertib10-K Item 1: 'Darovasertib is an oral, potent and selective small molecule inhibitor of protein kinase C (PKC) and our most advanced clinical program.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Unprofitable operations — net margin -74.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.96: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $31.58. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $45.57 (+34.2% upside). Prior stop was $31.58. Stop-loss: $31.58.
Concentration risk — Pipeline: darovasertib; Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).
IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover IDYA with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $52.
What does IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. do?IDEAYA Biosciences develops targeted cancer therapies (small molecule inhibitors and ADCs) for molecularly defined...
IDEAYA Biosciences develops targeted cancer therapies (small molecule inhibitors and ADCs) for molecularly defined solid tumors, with nine clinical-stage candidates and no approved products. Lead asset darovasertib is in a Phase 2/3 trial for uveal melanoma; Servier paid $210 million upfront in August 2025 for ex-U.S. rights, with up to $320 million in milestones.