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ICLRICON plcSell4.8·$178.18-1.14%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The company's exceptional free cash flow conversion and historical earnings beat record are offset by a confirmed price downtrend — the stock is below a falling 200-day moving average — and an earnings report due today that introduces immediate binary risk into any position.

Thesis pillars

  • Confirmed Technical DowntrendImproving
  • Recent Earnings Miss After Beat StreakImproving
  • Exceptional Free Cash Flow ConversionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

ICON plc (ICLR) Stock Analysis

SellValueShortModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research

Earnings in 0 days (2026-07-29). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $178.18: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.47; Below-average business quality.

ICON Public Limited Company, a clinical research organization, provides outsourced development and commercialization services in Ireland, Europe, the United States, and internationally. The company specializes in the strategic development, management, and analysis of programs... Read more

$178.18-8.2% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#29 of 32 Diagnostics & Research
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.82%
Stop $165.71Target $182.91(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$181.81+2.0%16 analysts
$182.91our TP
$178.18price
$181.81mean
$150
$220

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $178.18: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.47; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 2026today· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-8.2% upside)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)74.2
P/E (Fwd)15.2
Mkt Cap$13.9B
EV/EBITDA12.7
Profit Mgn2.1%
ROE1.8%
Rev Growth0.9%
Beta1.22
DividendNone
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.47bearish
IV73%elevated
Max Pain$145-18.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.7

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
3.3
52w Position
6.9

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.6
Net Margin
1.0
Gross Margin
1.1
Roa
2.3
Operating Margin
3.7
Current Ratio
4.4
Moat
4.5
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 467% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $161.29Resistance $186.64

Price Targets

$166
$183
A.Upside-8.2%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ICLR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $178.18: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.47; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $165.71. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ICLR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $182.91 (-8.2% upside). Prior stop was $165.71. Stop-loss: $165.71.

What are the risks of investing in ICLR?

Target reached (-8.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is ICLR overvalued or undervalued?

ICON plc trades at a P/E of 74.2 (forward 15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ICLR?

24 analysts cover ICLR with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $182.

What does ICON plc do?ICON Public Limited Company, a clinical research organization, provides outsourced development and commercialization...

ICON Public Limited Company, a clinical research organization, provides outsourced development and commercialization services in Ireland, Europe, the United States, and internationally. The company specializes in the strategic development, management, and analysis of programs that support various stages of the clinical development process from compound selection to Phase I-IV clinical studies. It also provides clinical development services, including all phases of development, peri and post approval, data solutions, and site and patient access services; clinical trial management, consulting, contract staffing, data solutions, and laboratory services; and commercial services comprising clinical development strategy, planning and trial design, full study execution, and post-market commercialization. In addition, the company offers testing services comprising bioanalytical, biomarker, vaccine, good manufacturing practice, and central laboratory services, as well as full-service and functional service partnerships to customers. Further, the company provides adaptive trials, cardiac safety solutions, clinical and scientific operations, consulting and advisory, commercial positioning, decentralized and hybrid clinical trials, early clinical, medical imaging, real world intelligence, site and patient, and strategic solutions. Additionally, it provides therapeutics for cardiovascular, central nervous system, endocrine and metabolic disorders, hepatology, infectious diseases, internal medicine immunology, and oncology. It serves pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries, as well as government and public health organizations. ICON Public Limited Company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

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