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IBMInternational Business MachinesSell5.1·$274.75-0.04%
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International Business Machines (IBM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $274.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5.

IBM is a global technology company providing hybrid cloud and AI-based software, consulting, and IT infrastructure to enterprises across 175+ countries, with approximately 60% of revenues from outside the United States. Revenue comes from software licensing and subscriptions,... Read more

$274.75+19.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#24 of 34 Information Technology Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.11%
IncomeYield2.48%(5y avg 3.91%)Payout59.47%sustainable
Stop $253.18Target $325.81(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$290.89+5.9%21 analysts
$325.81our TP
$274.75price
$290.89mean
$195
$390

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $274.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.1
P/E (Fwd)20.3
Mkt Cap$255.9B
EV/EBITDA18.9
Profit Mgn15.6%
ROE35.8%
Rev Growth9.5%
Beta0.67
Dividend2.48%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.80bearish
IV60%elevated
Max Pain$110-60.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $216.78Resistance $332.46

Price Targets

$253
$326
A.Upside+18.6%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.8% upside)
! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IBM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $274.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $253.18. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the IBM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $325.81 (+19.7% upside). Prior stop was $253.18. Stop-loss: $253.18.

What are the risks of investing in IBM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is IBM overvalued or undervalued?

International Business Machines trades at a P/E of 24.1 (forward 20.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IBM?

28 analysts cover IBM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $291.

What does International Business Machines do?IBM is a global technology company providing hybrid cloud and AI-based software, consulting, and IT infrastructure to...

IBM is a global technology company providing hybrid cloud and AI-based software, consulting, and IT infrastructure to enterprises across 175+ countries, with approximately 60% of revenues from outside the United States. Revenue comes from software licensing and subscriptions, consulting engagements, and infrastructure products and services, serving large enterprises and governments globally.

Related stocks: ACN (Accenture plc) · INFY (Infosys Limited) · TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur) · CRDO (Credo Technology Group Holding ) · AVGO (Broadcom Inc.)
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