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HOMBHome BancShares, Inc.Sell5.2·$28.25+1.44%
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Home BancShares, Inc. (HOMB) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. At $28.25, A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (53.2%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (74.1%).

Home BancShares is a Conway, Arkansas bank holding company operating Centennial Bank with branches in Arkansas, Florida, Texas, Alabama, and New York City, with $22.9 billion in total assets as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from net interest income and non-interest income... Read more

$28.25-1.7% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#129 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.97%(5y avg 2.79%)Payout33.74%sustainable
Stop $27.27Target $27.76(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$31.14+10.2%7 analysts
$27.76our TP
$28.25price
$31.14mean
$33

Sell if holding. At $28.25, A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (53.2%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (74.1%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13

Recent Developments — Home BancShares, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 15, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (53.2%)
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (74.1%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.6
P/E (Fwd)10.9
Mkt Cap$5.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn44.5%
ROE11.4%
Rev Growth2.4%
Beta0.69
Dividend2.97%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.26bullish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$35+23.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans53%
    10-K Item 1: 'commercial real estate loans represented 53.2% and 57.6% of gross loans and 194.3% and 214.6% of total stockholders’ equity, respectively'
  • HIGHloan_portfolioreal estate loans74%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 74.1% of our total loan portfolio was comprised of loans with real estate as a primary or secondary component of collateral'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryFederal Reserve Board
    10-K Item 1A: 'As a registered bank holding company, we are primarily regulated by the Federal Reserve Board. Our bank subsidiary is also primarily regulated by the Federal Reserve Board and the Arkansas State Bank Department.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.7
Revenue Growth
3.1

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.3
52w Position
8.6
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $25.50Resistance $28.33

Price Targets

$27
$28
A.Upside-1.7%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-15 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HOMB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $28.25, A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (53.2%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (74.1%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $27.27. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HOMB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.76 (-1.7% upside). Prior stop was $27.27. Stop-loss: $27.27.

What are the risks of investing in HOMB?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (53.2%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (74.1%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is HOMB overvalued or undervalued?

Home BancShares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.6 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HOMB?

14 analysts cover HOMB with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Home BancShares, Inc. do?Home BancShares is a Conway, Arkansas bank holding company operating Centennial Bank with branches in Arkansas,...

Home BancShares is a Conway, Arkansas bank holding company operating Centennial Bank with branches in Arkansas, Florida, Texas, Alabama, and New York City, with $22.9 billion in total assets as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from net interest income and non-interest income on a diversified loan portfolio. Commercial real estate loans represented 53.2% of gross loans and real estate loans overall totaled 74.1% of the loan portfolio.

Related stocks: NIC (Nicolet Bankshares Inc.) · IFS (Intercorp Financial Services In) · GABC (German American Bancorp, Inc.) · CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · INTR (Inter & Co. Inc.)
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