Value
6.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 6.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 3.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸PEG: 3.12
HOMB · Why this verdict
Why Home BancShares (HOMB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 45%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 2.7 |
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 4.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $2,562,115 (0.045% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.5 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 1.2 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 2.8 |
| volatility | 8.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.9 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.9 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.1 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
- ▸Dividend: 297.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.42
Upside
-4.1%
Downside
9.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMOMENTUM_CONT — Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.42 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.6, and Value at 6.4; the weakest are Growth at 2.9, Technical at 3.0, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.42 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.