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HLHecla Mining CompanyBuy Wait7.0·$14.92
Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Thesis pillars

  • Wide Moat Quality Franchise→Stable
  • Compelling Risk Reward To Target→Stable
  • Commodity Concentration Cyclical Risk↑Improving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Hecla Mining Company (HL) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Sector Rotation edge

Buy WaitGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Other Precious Metals & Mining

Earnings in 5 days (2026-11-03). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $13.87. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross), recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $14.92. Engine's entry $13.87 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: silver, gold, lead and zinc; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Hecla Mining Company has produced precious and base metals since 1891, operating four North American mines: Greens Creek (Alaska, 44% of 2025 metals sales), Lucky Friday (Idaho, 22%), Keno Hill (Yukon, 11%), and Casa Berardi (Quebec, 23%, pending sale). Concentrates and doré are... Read more

$14.92+27.6% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#3 of 12 Other Precious Metals & Mining
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.42%
IncomeYield0.10%(5y avg 0.25%)Payout1.95%sustainable
Entry $13.87(support + ATR (held))Stop $13.09Target $19.03(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst consensus$21.88+46.6%10 analysts
$19.03our TP
$14.92price
$21.88mean
$32

Wait for pullback to $13.87. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross), recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $14.92. Engine's entry $13.87 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: silver, gold, lead and zinc; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.17, quality 8.8/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 20265d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.8 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: silver, gold, lead and zinc
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.9
P/E (Fwd)15.7
Mkt Cap$10.0B
EV/EBITDA9.9
Profit Mgn19.2%
ROE22.2%
Rev Growth52.4%
Beta1.37
Dividend0.10%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C1.04bearish
IV71%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommoditysilver, gold, lead and zinc
    10-K Item 1: 'Our operating results are substantially dependent upon the prices of silver, gold, lead and zinc'
  • MEDIUMCustomerrelatively small number of customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a significant amount of revenue from a relatively small number of customers'
  • MEDIUMGeographicGreens Creek44%
    10-K Item 1: 'The contributions to our total metals sales by our significant operations in 2025 were 44.3% from Greens Creek'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-22Item 5.02LOW
    On May 21, 2026, shareholders approved an amendment to Hecla's Director Stock Plan extending its expiration date from May 2027 to May 2036. Routine compensatory arrangement change; no officer departure.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-10Item 1.02MEDIUM
    On April 9, 2026, Hecla completed full redemption of remaining $263 million 7.25% Senior Notes due 2028, terminating the Indenture (Feb 2020) and two supplemental indentures. No default; redemption completed at par per notice from trustee.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-10Item 2.04LOW
    Triggering event related to full redemption of $263 million 7.25% Senior Notes due 2028 on April 9, 2026. Obligation accelerated via redemption; no default. Incorporates Item 1.02 by reference.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
35 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $13.50Resistance $17.43

Price Targets

$13
$14
$19
A.Upside+27.6%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HL stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $13.87. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross), recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $14.92. Engine's entry $13.87 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: silver, gold, lead and zinc; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.17, quality 8.8/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $19.03 (+27.5%), stop $13.09 (−14.0%), A.R:R 2.9:1. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.03 (+27.6% upside). Target $19.03 (+27.5%), stop $13.09 (−14.0%), A.R:R 2.9:1. Stop-loss: $13.09.

What are the risks of investing in HL?

Concentration risk — Commodity: silver, gold, lead and zinc; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is HL overvalued or undervalued?

Hecla Mining Company trades at a P/E of 19.9 (forward 15.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about HL?

19 analysts cover HL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Hecla Mining Company do?Hecla Mining Company has produced precious and base metals since 1891, operating four North American mines: Greens...

Hecla Mining Company has produced precious and base metals since 1891, operating four North American mines: Greens Creek (Alaska, 44% of 2025 metals sales), Lucky Friday (Idaho, 22%), Keno Hill (Yukon, 11%), and Casa Berardi (Quebec, 23%, pending sale). Concentrates and doré are sold to custom smelters, metal traders, and refiners; the company realized average silver of $45.25/oz and gold of $3,490/oz in 2025.

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