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HESMHess Midstream LPHold5.3·$38.78+0.52%
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Hess Midstream LP (HESM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Chevron; Concentration risk — Geographic: Bakken.

Hess Midstream LP acquires, owns, operates, and develops midstream assets and provide fee-based services to sponsor, its subsidiaries, and third-party customers in the United States. It operates through three segments: Gathering; Processing and Storage; and Terminaling and... Read more

$38.78+3.8% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#28 of 42 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.66%
IncomeYield7.83%(5y avg 7.29%)Payout102.62%at-risk
Stop $37.04Target $40.27(resistance)A.R:R -3.5:1
Analyst target$36.83-5.0%6 analysts
$40.27our TP
$38.78price
$36.83mean
$32
$40

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Chevron; Concentration risk — Geographic: Bakken. Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 47d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202647d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.2 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Chevron
Concentration risk — Geographic: Bakken
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.4
P/E (Fwd)12.7
Mkt Cap$8.0B
EV/EBITDA7.0
Profit Mgn22.6%
ROE153.4%
Rev Growth2.1%
Beta0.51
Dividend7.83%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.97neutral
IV50%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerChevron
    10-K Item 1A: 'Chevron currently accounts for substantially all of our revenues.'
  • HIGHGeographicBakken
    10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of our assets are located in the Bakken, and we continue to focus our future capital expenditures largely on developing our business in that area.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.0
Earnings Growth
3.0

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
2.5
Obv
5.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R -3.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 47d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $37.42Resistance $41.09

Price Targets

$37
$40
A.Upside+3.8%
A.R:R-3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.4% upside)
! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (47d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HESM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Chevron; Concentration risk — Geographic: Bakken. Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $40.27 (+3.8%), stop $37.04 (−4.7%), A.R:R -3.5:1. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HESM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.27 (+3.8% upside). Target $40.27 (+3.8%), stop $37.04 (−4.7%), A.R:R -3.5:1. Stop-loss: $37.04.

What are the risks of investing in HESM?

Concentration risk — Customer: Chevron; Concentration risk — Geographic: Bakken; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is HESM overvalued or undervalued?

Hess Midstream LP trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 12.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HESM?

12 analysts cover HESM with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $37.

What does Hess Midstream LP do?Hess Midstream LP acquires, owns, operates, and develops midstream assets and provide fee-based services to sponsor,...

Hess Midstream LP acquires, owns, operates, and develops midstream assets and provide fee-based services to sponsor, its subsidiaries, and third-party customers in the United States. It operates through three segments: Gathering; Processing and Storage; and Terminaling and Export. The Gathering segment owns natural gas gathering and compression systems; crude oil gathering systems; and produced water gathering and disposal facilities. Its gathering system consists of approximately 1,430 miles of high- and low-pressure natural gas and natural gas liquids gathering pipelines with capacity of approximately 685 million cubic feet per day; crude oil gathering system comprises approximately 615 miles of crude oil gathering pipelines; and produces water gathering system that includes approximately 360 miles of pipelines in gathering systems. The Processing and Storage segment comprises Tioga Gas Plant, a natural gas processing and fractionation plant located in Tioga, North Dakota; Mentor Storage Terminal, a propane storage cavern and rail, and truck loading and unloading facility located in Mentor, Minnesota; and Terminaling and Export segment that owns Ramberg terminal facility, the Tioga rail terminal, crude oil rail cars, and other Dakota access pipeline connections, as well as Johnson's Corner Header System, a crude oil pipeline header system; and other DAPL connections. Hess Midstream LP was formerly known as Hess Midstream Partners LP and changed its name to Hess Midstream LP in December 2019. Hess Midstream LP was founded in 2014 and is based in Houston, Texas.

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