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HCAHCA Healthcare, Inc.Hold5.5·$361.32-2.90%
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HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $361.32, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida and Texas; Weak growth.

HCA Healthcare operates 190 hospitals (179 acute care, 7 behavioral, 4 rehab), 121 freestanding ASCs, and 31 endoscopy centers across 19 US states and England, generating $75.6 billion in 2025 revenues. Revenue comes primarily from managed care/private insurers (48.9%), Medicare... Read more

$361.32+26.2% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#10 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.94%
IncomeYield0.84%(5y avg 0.78%)Payout10.13%sustainable
Stop $346.18Target $456.00(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.1:1
Analyst target$506.67+40.2%21 analysts
$456.00our TP
$361.32price
$506.67mean
$635

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $361.32, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida and Texas; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 14, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 24, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida and Texas
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.8
P/E (Fwd)11.2
Mkt Cap$82.6B
EV/EBITDA8.7
Profit Mgn8.9%
ROE
Rev Growth4.3%
Beta1.13
Dividend0.84%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.06bearish
IV49%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicFlorida and Texas
    10-K Item 1: 'Our facilities are heavily concentrated in Florida and Texas, which makes us sensitive to regulatory, economic, public health, environmental and competitive conditions and changes in those states.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-25Item 5.02LOW
    HCA Compensation Committee adopted the 2026 Executive Officer Performance Excellence Program on Feb 24, 2026, setting performance award opportunities (80% EBITDA targets, 20% quality metrics) for named executive officers including CEO (175% of base salary) and CFO/COO (125% of base salary).
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.7
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 14, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.6
Earnings Growth
4.2
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 4.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
14 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $356.89Resistance $437.95

Price Targets

$346
$456
A.Upside+26.2%
A.R:R4.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-24 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HCA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $361.32, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida and Texas; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 14, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $456.00 (+26.2%), stop $346.18 (−4.4%), A.R:R 4.1:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HCA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $456.00 (+26.2% upside). Target $456.00 (+26.2%), stop $346.18 (−4.4%), A.R:R 4.1:1. Stop-loss: $346.18.

What are the risks of investing in HCA?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida and Texas; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is HCA overvalued or undervalued?

HCA Healthcare, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.8 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HCA?

30 analysts cover HCA with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $507.

What does HCA Healthcare, Inc. do?HCA Healthcare operates 190 hospitals (179 acute care, 7 behavioral, 4 rehab), 121 freestanding ASCs, and 31 endoscopy...

HCA Healthcare operates 190 hospitals (179 acute care, 7 behavioral, 4 rehab), 121 freestanding ASCs, and 31 endoscopy centers across 19 US states and England, generating $75.6 billion in 2025 revenues. Revenue comes primarily from managed care/private insurers (48.9%), Medicare (32.7% combined), and Medicaid (12.7% combined). Facilities are heavily concentrated in Florida and Texas.

Related stocks: UHS (Universal Health Services, Inc.) · THC (Tenet Healthcare Corporation) · EHC (Encompass Health Corporation) · DVA (DaVita Inc.) · ENSG (The Ensign Group, Inc.)
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