Value
8.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.7 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
GTN · Why this verdict
Why Gray Media (GTN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality sits below the engine's 4.0 floor at 2.1, driven by a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9 and the absence of a competitive moat, despite the stock screening as attractively valued. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should rise above 5 out of 9 over the next 12 months if fundamental improvement across profitability and efficiency measures materializes. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 3 is weak but not the weakest possible reading, and can improve relatively quickly if even a couple of the underlying binary tests, such as margin improvement or leverage reduction, flip positive next quarter. | ||
Revenue is declining at about -2% year over year, reflecting structural pressure in the broadcasting business that weighs on the growth score. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive over the next 12 months if the business stabilizes or benefits from advertising cycle tailwinds. | →Stable |
| CounterBroadcasting revenue is well known to be cyclical around election and advertising cycles, so a modest -2% decline in an off-cycle period may reverse naturally without any operational change. | ||
The stock is recovering from a death cross, with momentum now at 6.5, above the 5.0 recovery threshold, and MACD improving, suggesting the prior downtrend may be reversing. Gates warning | The momentum score should hold above 5.5 over the next 12 months if the recovery setup continues to build. | →Stable |
| CounterRecoveries from a death cross frequently fail and roll over into renewed downtrends, especially when the underlying business, as measured by revenue, is still contracting. | ||
The engine models a favorable risk/reward skew, with an asymmetry ratio of 2.76 and 37.6% modeled upside against 13.6% modeled downside. Reward-to-risk math | Actual price upside should track toward the 37.6% modeled target over the next 12 months if the recovery thesis plays out. | →Stable |
| CounterThe favorable asymmetry ratio depends on an analyst price target that could be cut if the declining-revenue trend persists, which would compress the modeled upside. | ||
Insiders have been modest net sellers, totaling $250,690 over 90 days (0.059% of market cap), producing a bearish insider signal that the engine itself rates as minor severity. Insider breakdown | Insider activity should turn neutral or bullish over the next 12 months if insiders regain confidence in the recovery setup. | →Stable |
| CounterA sale worth just 0.059% of market cap, rated minor severity by the engine, is small enough to likely reflect routine personal transactions rather than a considered bearish view of the recovery thesis. | ||
Quality sits below the engine's 4.0 floor at 2.1, driven by a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9 and the absence of a competitive moat, despite the stock screening as attractively valued.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should rise above 5 out of 9 over the next 12 months if fundamental improvement across profitability and efficiency measures materializes.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 3 is weak but not the weakest possible reading, and can improve relatively quickly if even a couple of the underlying binary tests, such as margin improvement or leverage reduction, flip positive next quarter.
Revenue is declining at about -2% year over year, reflecting structural pressure in the broadcasting business that weighs on the growth score.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive over the next 12 months if the business stabilizes or benefits from advertising cycle tailwinds.
CounterBroadcasting revenue is well known to be cyclical around election and advertising cycles, so a modest -2% decline in an off-cycle period may reverse naturally without any operational change.
The stock is recovering from a death cross, with momentum now at 6.5, above the 5.0 recovery threshold, and MACD improving, suggesting the prior downtrend may be reversing.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- The momentum score should hold above 5.5 over the next 12 months if the recovery setup continues to build.
CounterRecoveries from a death cross frequently fail and roll over into renewed downtrends, especially when the underlying business, as measured by revenue, is still contracting.
The engine models a favorable risk/reward skew, with an asymmetry ratio of 2.76 and 37.6% modeled upside against 13.6% modeled downside.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- Actual price upside should track toward the 37.6% modeled target over the next 12 months if the recovery thesis plays out.
CounterThe favorable asymmetry ratio depends on an analyst price target that could be cut if the declining-revenue trend persists, which would compress the modeled upside.
Insiders have been modest net sellers, totaling $250,690 over 90 days (0.059% of market cap), producing a bearish insider signal that the engine itself rates as minor severity.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider activity should turn neutral or bullish over the next 12 months if insiders regain confidence in the recovery setup.
CounterA sale worth just 0.059% of market cap, rated minor severity by the engine, is small enough to likely reflect routine personal transactions rather than a considered bearish view of the recovery thesis.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Gray Media shows a technical recovery from a death cross with a favorable modeled asymmetry, but quality remains below the engine's floor on a weak Piotroski score, revenue is declining, and insiders have been modest net sellers - together supporting the recommendation to exit the position despite the attractive valuation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.9 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
2.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 72%
Insider
4.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $250,690 (0.061% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 2.7 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 2.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| debt equity | 2.9 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 4 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 7.8%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.09
Upside
+50.0%
Downside
12.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -40% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Sentiment at 6.6, and Technical at 5.7; the weakest are Growth at 2.0, Quality at 2.1, and Momentum at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor Weak Piotroski
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises above 5 out of 9, from the current 3 out of 9, in the next reported quarter.
- P2Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 3% year over year, from the current -2%, for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Death Cross Recovery Setup
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.0, from the current 6.5, for 2 consecutive months, ending the recovery setup.
- P4Favorable Asymmetry Upside
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 1.0, from the current 2.76, as the price target or downside estimate resets.
- P5Modest Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider signal flips to bullish with net insider buying exceeding $100,000 over a 90-day window.