With only 2.6% headroom to the analyst price target, an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio of 0.37, quality below the minimum threshold, and a dividend payout ratio of 401% that substantially exceeds reported earnings, the setup tilts firmly toward caution despite an otherwise reasonable earnings beat record.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Deficit Fcf Conversion→Stable
- Dividend Sustainability Risk→Stable
- Earnings Beat Consistency→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026
Graphic Packaging Holding Compa (GPK) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.54: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company designs and manufactures sustainable packaging solutions including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, as well as cups and bowls... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.54: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Graphic Packaging Holding Compa
Latest news
- NEWS Graphic Packaging International Implements RNG-Powered Freight Fleet — fiscal.ai Oct 26, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Underweight on Graphic Packaging Holding, Lowers Price Target to $9 — benzinga Oct 19, 2026 negative
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Sector Perform on Graphic Packaging Holding, Lowers Price Target to $9 — benzinga Oct 13, 2026 negative
- NEWS Truist Securities Maintains Hold on Graphic Packaging Holding, Lowers Price Target to $9 — benzinga Oct 12, 2026 negative
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on Graphic Packaging Holding, Lowers Price Target to $9.5 — benzinga Oct 5, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:32Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-09-28Item 5.02MEDIUMDeparture of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On September 28, 2026, Aditya J.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.54: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Prior stop was $7.94. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $9.53 (+11.6% upside). Prior stop was $7.94. Stop-loss: $7.94.
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).
Graphic Packaging Holding Compa trades at a P/E of 12.9 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover GPK with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $11.
What does Graphic Packaging Holding Compa do?The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company...
The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company designs and manufactures sustainable packaging solutions including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, as well as cups and bowls made primarily from recycled paperboard, unbleached paperboard and bleached paperboard.