With only 2.6% headroom to the analyst price target, an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio of 0.37, quality below the minimum threshold, and a dividend payout ratio of 401% that substantially exceeds reported earnings, the setup tilts firmly toward caution despite an otherwise reasonable earnings beat record.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Deficit Fcf Conversion→Stable
- Dividend Sustainability Risk↑Improving
- Earnings Beat Consistency↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Graphic Packaging Holding Compa (GPK) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.52: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 1.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.
The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company designs and manufactures sustainable packaging solutions including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, as well as cups and bowls... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.52: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 1.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 14, MACD bearish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-13Recent Developments — Graphic Packaging Holding Compa
Latest news
- NEWS Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts Spotlight On 3 Materials Stocks Delivering High-Dividend Yields — benzinga Sep 11, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Top 3 Materials Stocks That Could Blast Off In September — benzinga Sep 9, 2026 positive
- NEWS Graphic Packaging Sued By Shareholder Over Alleged Breach Of Fiduciary Duty — benzinga Aug 17, 2026 negative
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on Graphic Packaging Holding, Raises Price Target to $12 — benzinga Aug 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Underweight on Graphic Packaging Holding, Raises Price Target to $10 — benzinga Aug 5, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-09-14T05:21:57Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-11Item 5.02MEDIUMEffective June 11, 2026, following the Annual Meeting of Stockholders, Mr. Philip R. Martens retired from his positions as a member and Chairman of the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (the "Company"). Mr. Larry M.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.52: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 1.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 14, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $9.02. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $10.87 (+14.4% upside). Prior stop was $9.02. Stop-loss: $9.02.
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).
Graphic Packaging Holding Compa trades at a P/E of 14.4 (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover GPK with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $12.
What does Graphic Packaging Holding Compa do?The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company...
The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company designs and manufactures sustainable packaging solutions including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, as well as cups and bowls made primarily from recycled paperboard, unbleached paperboard and bleached paperboard.