Skip to main content
GPKGraphic Packaging Holding CompaSell5.0·$10.54+0.00%
Open full analysis

Graphic Packaging Holding Compa (GPK) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.54: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company designs and manufactures sustainable packaging solutions including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, as well as cups and bowls... Read more

$10.54+8.2% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#13 of 16 Packaging & Containers
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield6.02%
IncomeYield4.18%(5y avg 1.79%)Payout47.83%sustainable
Stop $9.78Target $11.38(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$11.79+11.8%9 analysts
$11.38our TP
$10.54price
$11.79mean
$8
$18

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.54: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Graphic Packaging Holding Compa

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-2.5% upside)
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.4
P/E (Fwd)9.0
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA7.0
Profit Mgn3.2%
ROE8.6%
Rev Growth1.7%
Beta0.67
Dividend4.18%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.11bearish
IV85%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-11Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Effective March 8, 2026, the Board of Directors of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (the "Company") appointed Mr. Jeffrey M. Stafeil to the Board of Directors. Mr. Stafeil will serve as one of the Class I Directors, whose terms expire in 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
1.6
Operating Margin
1.7
Roa
2.5
Roe
2.9
Moat
3.8
Current Ratio
5.2
Fcf Quality
5.2
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality warning: 68% FCF/NINo competitive moat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Erm
2.0
Surprise Avg
4.6
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 417.0%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
4.4
Support Resistance
4.7
Gap
6.0

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Rsi
3.6
Macd
3.9
Volume
4.9
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.31Resistance $11.61

Price Targets

$10
$11
A.Upside+8.0%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GPK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.54: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $9.78. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GPK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.38 (+8.2% upside). Prior stop was $9.78. Stop-loss: $9.78.

What are the risks of investing in GPK?

Target reached (-2.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is GPK overvalued or undervalued?

Graphic Packaging Holding Compa trades at a P/E of 11.4 (forward 9.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GPK?

18 analysts cover GPK with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Graphic Packaging Holding Compa do?The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company...

The Company is a leading producer of consumer goods packaging made from renewable or recycled materials. The Company designs and manufactures sustainable packaging solutions including cartons, multipack cartons, trays, carriers, paperboard canisters, as well as cups and bowls made primarily from recycled paperboard, unbleached paperboard and bleached paperboard.

Related stocks: CCK (Crown Holdings, Inc.) · SLGN (Silgan Holdings Inc.) · GEF (Greif Inc.) · REYN (Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.) · BALL (Ball Corporation)
Home Stocks GPK

Latest news

Latest News

Benzinga39d agoAnalyst
Benzinga39d agoAnalyst
Benzinga41d ago
Benzinga41d agoEarnings
Benzinga41d agoEarnings
Benzinga41d ago
Benzinga47d agoProduct
Benzinga62d agoAnalyst
Benzinga62d agoAnalyst