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Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $359.80: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Group 1 Automotive operates 145 U.S. dealerships in 17 states and 109 U.K. dealerships in 62 towns, selling new and used vehicles, arranging financing, and providing parts and service. Texas represents 31.6% of U.S. new vehicle unit sales; the U.K. accounts for 27.6% of total... Read more

$359.80+3.7% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#13 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
Stop $335.74Target $374.34(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$430.27+19.6%11 analysts
$374.34our TP
$359.80price
$430.27mean
$500

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $359.80: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: vehicle manufacturers
Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.6
P/E (Fwd)7.6
Mkt Cap$4.2B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn1.5%
ROE
Rev Growth-1.8%
Beta
Dividend0.62%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.28bullish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$240-33.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliervehicle manufacturers
    10-K Item 1A: 'The success of our business is dependent on vehicle manufacturers on whom we rely exclusively on for our new vehicle inventory'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-03Item 5.02LOW
    Group 1 Automotive and CEO Daryl Kenningham entered Second Amendment to Incentive Agreement on March 2, 2026, restructuring severance to 1.5x base+bonus (standard termination) or 2.0x within 6 months of a Corporate Change. Compensatory arrangement only; no departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.7
Operating Margin
1.8
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
5.0
No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
2.2
52w Position
4.8

Revenue shrinking — -1.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.0
Earnings Growth
4.4
Declining revenue: -2%
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $315.65Resistance $373.56

Price Targets

$336
$374
A.Upside+4.0%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0)
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GPI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $359.80: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Prior stop was $335.74. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GPI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $374.34 (+3.7% upside). Prior stop was $335.74. Stop-loss: $335.74.

What are the risks of investing in GPI?

Concentration risk — Supplier: vehicle manufacturers; Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0).

Is GPI overvalued or undervalued?

Group 1 Automotive, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.6 (forward 7.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GPI?

15 analysts cover GPI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $430.

What does Group 1 Automotive, Inc. do?Group 1 Automotive operates 145 U.S. dealerships in 17 states and 109 U.K. dealerships in 62 towns, selling new and...

Group 1 Automotive operates 145 U.S. dealerships in 17 states and 109 U.K. dealerships in 62 towns, selling new and used vehicles, arranging financing, and providing parts and service. Texas represents 31.6% of U.S. new vehicle unit sales; the U.K. accounts for 27.6% of total new vehicle unit sales. Revenue depends exclusively on OEM franchise relationships for new vehicle inventory.

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