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GGGGraco Inc.Sell5.1·$74.16-0.24%
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Graco Inc. (GGG) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $74.16: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas sales (60.0%).

Graco is a global manufacturer of fluid handling equipment — pumps, meters, valves, and spray equipment — used in industrial, construction, automotive, and process markets. It earns revenue through proprietary equipment sales and aftermarket parts in the Americas, EMEA, and Asia... Read more

$74.16+7.9% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#37 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.19%
IncomeYield1.59%(5y avg 1.19%)Payout36.60%sustainable
Stop $71.58Target $80.04(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$92.00+24.1%8 analysts
$80.04our TP
$74.16price
$92.00mean
$100

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $74.16: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas sales (60.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.9 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas sales (60.0%)
Thin upside margin: 7.9%
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.3
P/E (Fwd)22.0
Mkt Cap$12.3B
EV/EBITDA16.2
Profit Mgn23.0%
ROE19.8%
Rev Growth2.2%
Beta0.93
Dividend1.59%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.83bearish
IV71%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicAmericas sales60%
    10-K Item 1A: 'sales in the Americas represented approximately 60 percent of our Company's total sales'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Graco announced the retirement of CFO Mark W. Lowe and the appointment of Anuj Gupta as Senior Vice President and CFO, effective March 2, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOW
    Graco director Jack W. Carter submitted his resignation from the Board of Directors, effective February 13, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.4
Revenue Growth
3.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
7.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 159.0%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.3
Value Rank
4.3
Quality Rank
8.3
Best-in-class margins
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.6>=4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $73.48Resistance $77.82

Price Targets

$72
$80
A.Upside+7.9%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GGG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $74.16: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas sales (60.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $71.58. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the GGG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $80.04 (+7.9% upside). Prior stop was $71.58. Stop-loss: $71.58.

What are the risks of investing in GGG?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas sales (60.0%); Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is GGG overvalued or undervalued?

Graco Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.3 (forward 22.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GGG?

16 analysts cover GGG with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $92.

What does Graco Inc. do?Graco is a global manufacturer of fluid handling equipment — pumps, meters, valves, and spray equipment — used in...

Graco is a global manufacturer of fluid handling equipment — pumps, meters, valves, and spray equipment — used in industrial, construction, automotive, and process markets. It earns revenue through proprietary equipment sales and aftermarket parts in the Americas, EMEA, and Asia Pacific regions.

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