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GBDCGolub Capital BDC, Inc.Sell5.4·$13.10+0.46%
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Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $13.10 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Golub Capital BDC is an externally managed, non-diversified BDC investing primarily in senior secured and one-stop loans to U.S. middle-market companies (EBITDA <$100M), managed by GC Advisors (Golub Capital affiliate with $85B+ AUM). Revenue comes from interest income on loans... Read more

$13.10+0.9% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#57 of 111 Asset Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield8.77%
IncomeYield11.04%(5y avg 9.21%)Payout194.81%at-risk
Stop $12.62Target $13.22(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$13.75+5.0%6 analysts
$13.22our TP
$13.10price
$13.75mean
$14

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $13.10 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202655d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.9
P/E (Fwd)10.3
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn24.6%
ROE5.3%
Rev Growth-12.0%
Beta0.42
Dividend11.04%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.71bearish
IV142%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.4
Quality Rank
3.9
Value Rank
5.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.9
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 0B/2MDividend: 1104.0%
GatesA.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.75Resistance $13.49

Price Targets

$13
$13
A.Upside+0.9%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.7% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GBDC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $13.10 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $12.62. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GBDC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.22 (+0.9% upside). Prior stop was $12.62. Stop-loss: $12.62.

What are the risks of investing in GBDC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is GBDC overvalued or undervalued?

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.9 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GBDC?

13 analysts cover GBDC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $14.

What does Golub Capital BDC, Inc. do?Golub Capital BDC is an externally managed, non-diversified BDC investing primarily in senior secured and one-stop...

Golub Capital BDC is an externally managed, non-diversified BDC investing primarily in senior secured and one-stop loans to U.S. middle-market companies (EBITDA <$100M), managed by GC Advisors (Golub Capital affiliate with $85B+ AUM). Revenue comes from interest income on loans and, to a lesser extent, fees; the portfolio is predominantly first-lien senior secured loans to private equity-backed companies.

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