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Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Earnings in 3 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: GC Advisors; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Golub Capital BDC is an externally managed, non-diversified BDC that invests primarily in one stop and senior secured loans to U.S. middle-market companies sponsored by private equity firms. Managed entirely by GC Advisors, an affiliate of Golub Capital with over 5.0 billion in... Read more

$13.81+7.6% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#91 of 109 Asset Management
Entry $12.62(support + ATR)Stop $12.10Target $13.58(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1Setup A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$14.43+4.5%6 analysts
$13.58our TP
$13.81price
$14.43mean
$13
$16

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: GC Advisors; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $13.82 has reached target $13.58. No upside to wait for. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst cluster(3), semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst Cluster(3) detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: GC Advisors
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.0
P/E (Fwd)10.4
Mkt Cap$3.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn38.6%
ROE8.3%
Rev Growth-6.2%
Beta0.42
Dividend10.95%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C6.43bearish
IV72%elevated
Max Pain$25+81.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierGC Advisors
    10-K Item 1A: 'We do not have any internal management capacity or employees. We rely on GC Advisors to manage and conduct our affairs'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -6.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.0
Earnings Growth
3.1
Declining revenue: -6%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.6
Quality Rank
5.4
Value Rank
5.9

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.3
Bollinger
0.9
52w Position
9.2
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(3)SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
70 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.47Resistance $13.86

Price Targets

$12
$13
$14
A.Upside-1.7%
A.R:R-0.9:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.1% upside)
! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GBDC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: GC Advisors; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $13.82 has reached target $13.58. No upside to wait for. Target $13.58 (-1.7%), stop $12.10 (−14.1%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GBDC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.58 (+7.6% upside). Target $13.58 (-1.7%), stop $12.10 (−14.1%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Stop-loss: $12.10.

What are the risks of investing in GBDC?

Concentration risk — Supplier: GC Advisors; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Is GBDC overvalued or undervalued?

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.0 (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about GBDC?

12 analysts cover GBDC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $14.

What does Golub Capital BDC, Inc. do?Golub Capital BDC is an externally managed, non-diversified BDC that invests primarily in one stop and senior secured...

Golub Capital BDC is an externally managed, non-diversified BDC that invests primarily in one stop and senior secured loans to U.S. middle-market companies sponsored by private equity firms. Managed entirely by GC Advisors, an affiliate of Golub Capital with over 5.0 billion in capital under management as of October 1, 2025.

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