Five Star Bancorp combines a perfect earnings beat streak, strong growth, and best-in-class margins with a stock that has already reached its price target and recent insider selling.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Strong Growth Best In Class Margins→Stable
- Target Reached Negative Asymmetry↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 6, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $45.84, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (81.1%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate related loans (86.1%).
Five Star Bancorp is a bank holding company for Five Star Bank, a California state-chartered bank serving small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individuals primarily in the Greater Sacramento Area through nine branches plus a new Walnut Creek branch opened in... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $45.84, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (81.1%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate related loans (86.1%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Five Star Bancorp
About Five Star Bancorp
Five Star Bancorp held $4.8 billion in total assets, $4.1 billion in total loans, and $4.2 billion in total deposits as of December 31, 2025, operating nine branches concentrated in the Greater Sacramento Area of Northern California plus a new Walnut Creek location opened in September 2025 as part of its Bay Area expansion. Commercial real estate loans made up 81.08% of total loans before deferred fees, and the bank ranked sixth by deposit market share in the Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom metropolitan area as of June 30, 2025.
Five Star Bank's loan book is anchored in commercial real estate ($3.3 billion, 81.08% of total loans), complemented by smaller books of commercial and industrial loans ($292.2 million, 7.16%), consumer and other loans ($275.5 million, 6.77%, largely purchased through a non-bank lender program), farmland loans ($59.6 million), and SBA 7(a) loans ($34.3 million), where the government guarantees 75% to 90% of principal and the bank typically sells the guaranteed portion in the secondary market. Deposits fund 97.49% of total liabilities, and the bank's 53 largest deposit relationships -- each exceeding $10.0 million -- totaled $2.0 billion, or 47.82% of total deposits, including $789.6 million held by municipalities that the bank reviews monthly. The bank maintains lines of credit with correspondent banks to mitigate the risk of large withdrawals from this concentrated depositor base.
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Real estate collateral dominates Five Star's balance sheet more broadly than the CRE figure alone suggests: real estate-related loans of all types represented 86.07% of total loans before deferred fees at December 31, 2025, with 56.89% of real estate loans secured by California collateral, most of it in Northern California. The bank says this concentration carries no more than normal collectability risk today, but a downturn in the Sacramento-area economy or in California real estate values specifically -- rather than a national downturn -- is the scenario most likely to move its credit losses.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Five Star Bancorp's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Five Star Bancorp
Latest news
- NEWS Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) Could Be 2% Undervalued As Earnings Put Fair Value In Focus - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) Could Be 2% Undervalued As Earnings Put Fair Value In Focus - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Five Star Bancorp earnings beat by $0.06, revenue topped estimates - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS Compared to Estimates, Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) Q2 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Five Star Bancorp Announces Launch Of Common Stock Offering - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:25Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans81%10-K Item 1: 'As of December 31, 2025, we had $3.3 billion in total commercial real estate loans, representing 81.08% of total loans before deferred fees'
- HIGHloan_portfolioreal estate related loans86%10-K Item 1: 'we have a high concentration of real estate related loans, which represented approximately 86.07% of total loans before deferred fees at December 31, 2025'
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia57%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 56.89% of our real estate loans measured by dollar amount were secured by collateral located in California, a majority of which is in Northern California'
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliotop 53 deposit relationships48%10-K Item 1: 'our 53 largest deposit relationships, each accounting for more than $10.0 million, totaled $2.0 billion, or 47.82% of our total deposits'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $45.84, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (81.1%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate related loans (86.1%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $44.89 reached (−2.1%), stop $43.98 (−4.2%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $44.89 reached (−2.1% from $45.84); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $44.89 reached (−2.1%), stop $43.98 (−4.2%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Stop-loss: $43.98.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (81.1%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate related loans (86.1%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Five Star Bancorp trades at a P/E of 13.0 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.
11 analysts cover FSBC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $52.
What does Five Star Bancorp do?Five Star Bancorp is a bank holding company for Five Star Bank, a California state-chartered bank serving small and...
Five Star Bancorp is a bank holding company for Five Star Bank, a California state-chartered bank serving small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individuals primarily in the Greater Sacramento Area through nine branches plus a new Walnut Creek branch opened in September 2025. The bank held $4.8 billion in total assets, $4.1 billion in total loans, and $4.2 billion in total deposits as of December 31, 2025, with commercial real estate loans comprising 81.08% of total loans before deferred fees.