Value
7.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 6.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 9.2 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.64
- ▸Attractively valued
FSBC · Why this verdict
Why Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Five Star Bancorp combines a perfect earnings beat streak, strong growth, and best-in-class margins with a stock that has already reached its price target and recent insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Five Star Bancorp has beaten earnings estimates in all of its last 4 quarters with an average surprise of about 8.8%, and the model flags an earnings catalyst edge with its next report in 16 days. Edge rationale | The perfect beat streak should extend through the next reported quarter (2026-07-20). | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterConsistent beats over 4 straight quarters raise the bar for the next print, increasing the chance that even a solid quarter reads as a letdown. | ||
Five Star is growing revenue 27% year-over-year while posting best-in-class margins and superior ROE relative to peers, per the peer-ranking analysis. Peer-rank breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY while margins remain best-in-class over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| Counter27% growth at a community bank can be inflated by a recent branch expansion or loan-portfolio acquisition rather than durable organic demand. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, and the model's risk/reward asymmetry is negative at -1.3, with 13.7% downside risk against essentially no further modeled upside. Bear case | A new, higher analyst target should emerge, or downside risk should shrink, for the risk/reward to turn positive over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA bank compounding 27% growth with a perfect beat streak can keep outrunning a stale price target rather than reverting to it. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers of Five Star Bancorp, offloading roughly 13,559 shares across 8 separate transactions with no offsetting purchases, generating a BEARISH insider signal. Insider | The insider signal should shift back to NEUTRAL or BULLISH over the next 12 months if selling activity stops. | →Stable |
| Counter8 separate but individually modest sell transactions can reflect routine diversification by multiple insiders rather than a coordinated negative view. | ||
Five Star Bancorp has beaten earnings estimates in all of its last 4 quarters with an average surprise of about 8.8%, and the model flags an earnings catalyst edge with its next report in 16 days.
↓DeterioratingEdge rationale
- Expectation
- The perfect beat streak should extend through the next reported quarter (2026-07-20).
CounterConsistent beats over 4 straight quarters raise the bar for the next print, increasing the chance that even a solid quarter reads as a letdown.
Five Star is growing revenue 27% year-over-year while posting best-in-class margins and superior ROE relative to peers, per the peer-ranking analysis.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY while margins remain best-in-class over the next 12 months.
Counter27% growth at a community bank can be inflated by a recent branch expansion or loan-portfolio acquisition rather than durable organic demand.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, and the model's risk/reward asymmetry is negative at -1.3, with 13.7% downside risk against essentially no further modeled upside.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- A new, higher analyst target should emerge, or downside risk should shrink, for the risk/reward to turn positive over the next 12 months.
CounterA bank compounding 27% growth with a perfect beat streak can keep outrunning a stale price target rather than reverting to it.
Insiders have been net sellers of Five Star Bancorp, offloading roughly 13,559 shares across 8 separate transactions with no offsetting purchases, generating a BEARISH insider signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- The insider signal should shift back to NEUTRAL or BULLISH over the next 12 months if selling activity stops.
Counter8 separate but individually modest sell transactions can reflect routine diversification by multiple insiders rather than a coordinated negative view.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 43%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.8 |
| EPS growth | 5.9 |
- ▸Strong growth: 29% YoY
Momentum
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 7.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 79)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.3 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 8.6 |
| growth rank | 8.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 4.0 |
| volatility | 7.4 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| beta | 9.8 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.33
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.23
Upside
-2.1%
Downside
9.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:8.0>=5.5. Top dim: Momentum at 8.0; weakest: Technical at 3.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.0, Growth at 7.9, and Value at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 3.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.6, and Quality at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe beat streak breaks, with a negative earnings surprise that falls below 0% in the next reported quarter (due 2026-07-20).
- P2Strong Growth Best In Class Margins
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifA new analyst target sets modeled upside above 10% while downside stays below 10%.
- P4Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifInsider signal flips to BULLISH with net share purchases of more than 5,000 shares.