Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.8 |
| P/S | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.30
- ▸Attractively valued
FSBC · Why this verdict
Why Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Five Star Bancorp has beaten earnings estimates in all of its last 4 quarters with an average surprise of about 8.8%, and the model flags an earnings catalyst edge with its next report in 16 days. Edge rationale | The perfect beat streak should extend through the next reported quarter (2026-07-20). | →Stable |
| CounterConsistent beats over 4 straight quarters raise the bar for the next print, increasing the chance that even a solid quarter reads as a letdown. | ||
Five Star is growing revenue 27% year-over-year while posting best-in-class margins and superior ROE relative to peers, per the peer-ranking analysis. Peer-rank breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY while margins remain best-in-class over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| Counter27% growth at a community bank can be inflated by a recent branch expansion or loan-portfolio acquisition rather than durable organic demand. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, and the model's risk/reward asymmetry is negative at -1.3, with 13.7% downside risk against essentially no further modeled upside. Bear case | A new, higher analyst target should emerge, or downside risk should shrink, for the risk/reward to turn positive over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA bank compounding 27% growth with a perfect beat streak can keep outrunning a stale price target rather than reverting to it. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers of Five Star Bancorp, offloading roughly 13,559 shares across 8 separate transactions with no offsetting purchases, generating a BEARISH insider signal. Insider | The insider signal should shift back to NEUTRAL or BULLISH over the next 12 months if selling activity stops. | →Stable |
| Counter8 separate but individually modest sell transactions can reflect routine diversification by multiple insiders rather than a coordinated negative view. | ||
Five Star Bancorp has beaten earnings estimates in all of its last 4 quarters with an average surprise of about 8.8%, and the model flags an earnings catalyst edge with its next report in 16 days.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- The perfect beat streak should extend through the next reported quarter (2026-07-20).
CounterConsistent beats over 4 straight quarters raise the bar for the next print, increasing the chance that even a solid quarter reads as a letdown.
Five Star is growing revenue 27% year-over-year while posting best-in-class margins and superior ROE relative to peers, per the peer-ranking analysis.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY while margins remain best-in-class over the next 12 months.
Counter27% growth at a community bank can be inflated by a recent branch expansion or loan-portfolio acquisition rather than durable organic demand.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, and the model's risk/reward asymmetry is negative at -1.3, with 13.7% downside risk against essentially no further modeled upside.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- A new, higher analyst target should emerge, or downside risk should shrink, for the risk/reward to turn positive over the next 12 months.
CounterA bank compounding 27% growth with a perfect beat streak can keep outrunning a stale price target rather than reverting to it.
Insiders have been net sellers of Five Star Bancorp, offloading roughly 13,559 shares across 8 separate transactions with no offsetting purchases, generating a BEARISH insider signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- The insider signal should shift back to NEUTRAL or BULLISH over the next 12 months if selling activity stops.
Counter8 separate but individually modest sell transactions can reflect routine diversification by multiple insiders rather than a coordinated negative view.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Five Star Bancorp combines a perfect earnings beat streak, strong growth, and best-in-class margins with a stock that has already reached its price target and recent insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.2 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 43%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 27% YoY
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 70)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 4.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $560,405 (0.054% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 8.9 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| implied vol | 0.7 |
| beta | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 76%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.9 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.57
Upside
-15.7%
Downside
10.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 13d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.6; weakest: Momentum at 4.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.6, Value at 7.1, and Catalyst at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 4.7, Sentiment at 5.4, and Technical at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.57 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe beat streak breaks, with a negative earnings surprise that falls below 0% in the next reported quarter (due 2026-07-20).
- P2Strong Growth Best In Class Margins
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifA new analyst target sets modeled upside above 10% while downside stays below 10%.
- P4Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifInsider signal flips to BULLISH with net share purchases of more than 5,000 shares.