A 42% margin of safety relative to book and a breakout technical setup are offset by declining revenue, no identifiable competitive moat, and a risk/reward ratio that is unfavorable at current prices—making the setup a value trap candidate rather than a clear opportunity.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Margin Of Safety→Stable
- Breakout Technical Setup→Stable
- No Competitive Moat→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Forestar Group Inc (FOR) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Real Estate · Real Estate - Development
Wait for pullback to $28.15. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $29.34. Engine's entry $28.15 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Forestar Group Inc. is a national, well-capitalized residential lot development company focused primarily on making investments in land acquisition and development to sell finished single-family residential lots to homebuilders. Our common stock is listed on the New York Stock... Read more
Wait for pullback to $28.15. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $29.34. Engine's entry $28.15 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 92d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-29Recent Developments — Forestar Group Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Forestar Group (FOR) Stock Looks Undervalued After Its 30% Five Year Gain - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
- NEWS Forestar Group Inc (FOR) Q2 2026 Earnings: Slight EPS Miss Amid Modest Stock Pullback - Guidance Downgrade Alert - dars. — dars.gov.et negative
- NEWS AI Fears Just Raised the Stakes in a Critical Week for Stock Markets - Barron's — Barron's negative
- NEWS What the Capex Boom Means for Stock Investors - Goldman Sachs — Goldman Sachs neutral
- NEWS Y’all Street is here: The Texas Stock Exchange opens for trading - Texas Standard — Texas Standard neutral
Generated 2026-07-30T22:23:47Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $28.15. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $29.34. Engine's entry $28.15 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $31.40 (+7.0%), stop $26.01 (−12.8%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $31.40 (-1.5% upside). Target $31.40 (+7.0%), stop $26.01 (−12.8%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $26.01.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Forestar Group Inc trades at a P/E of 8.5 (forward 9.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
8 analysts cover FOR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $34.
What does Forestar Group Inc do?Forestar Group Inc. is a national, well-capitalized residential lot development company focused primarily on making...
Forestar Group Inc. is a national, well-capitalized residential lot development company focused primarily on making investments in land acquisition and development to sell finished single-family residential lots to homebuilders. Our common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NYSE Texas under the ticker symbol "FOR." The listing and trading of the Common Stock on the NYSE Texas commenced on July 1, 2025.