Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the DNLI stock price target?

Take-profit $31.01 (+66.5% upside). Prior stop was $17.68.

Q: What are the risks of investing in DNLI?

Concentration risk — Product: TV platform and pipeline; Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0); Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0); Momentum score 4.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum.

Q: Is DNLI overvalued or undervalued?

Denali Therapeutics Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about DNLI?

25 analysts cover DNLI with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $36.

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-02

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Denali Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical developing barrier-crossing biotherapeutics using its TransportVehicle (TV) platform for neurodegenerative diseases and lysosomal storage disorders. Lead candidate tividenofusp alfa (ETV:IDS) has BLA under FDA priority... Read more

$18.58+66.5% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#66 of 158 Biotechnology

Stop $17.68Target $31.01(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 6.8:1

Analyst target$35.64+91.8%14 analysts

$31.01our TP

$18.58price

$35.64mean

$42

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.58: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 6.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.40; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: TV platform and pipeline

Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)-7.2

Mkt Cap$3.0B

EV/EBITDA-4.0

Profit Mgn0.0%

ROE-45.7%

Rev Growth—

Beta1.10

DividendNone

Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C5.40bearish

IV79%elevated

Max Pain$10-46.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductTV platform and pipeline
10-K Item 1A: 'We are heavily dependent on the successful development of our TV platform and the programs currently in our pipeline'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-04-03Item 1.02MEDIUM
Takeda terminated Collaboration Agreement for DNL593 (PTV:PGRN) on April 3, 2026, for strategic reasons unrelated to efficacy/safety. Termination effective 60 days from notice; all rights revert to Denali.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value9.015%1.35

Quality1.415%0.21

Growth5.015%0.75

Momentum4.010%0.40

Sentiment8.110%0.81

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank3.910%0.39

Technical Setup7.85%0.39

Risk Profile2.35%0.11

Catalyst4.75%0.24

Overall (Σ contributions)5.15

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe

0.0

Roa

0.0

Gross Margin

0.0

Operating Margin

0.0

Net Margin

0.0

Fcf Quality

0.0

Piotroski F

2.2

Current Ratio

5.0

Moat

5.0

Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Put Call

0.0

Implied Vol

0.2

Volatility

0.4

Debt Equity

0.8

Days To Cover

2.2

Max Pain Risk

3.0

Short Interest

4.9

Beta

6.6

Elevated put/call: 5.40High IV: 79%Above max pain $10Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

3.0

Value Rank

5.0

Growth Rank

5.0

GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 10d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 6.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

44 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.23Resistance $21.80

Price Targets

$18

$31

A.Upside+66.9%

A.R:R6.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)

! Momentum score 4.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-11 (10d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is DNLI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.58: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 6.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.40; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $17.68. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DNLI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.01 (+66.5% upside). Prior stop was $17.68. Stop-loss: $17.68.

What are the risks of investing in DNLI?

Concentration risk — Product: TV platform and pipeline; Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0).

Is DNLI overvalued or undervalued?

Denali Therapeutics Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DNLI?

25 analysts cover DNLI with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $36.

What does Denali Therapeutics Inc. do?Denali Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical developing barrier-crossing biotherapeutics using its...