D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $150.36 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae (71.0%).
D.R. Horton is the largest U.S. homebuilder by homes closed, operating in 126 markets across 36 states through homebuilding (~92% of FY2025 revenues of $34.3B), rental, lot development (62% stake in Forestar), and financial services segments. In FY2025, the company closed 84,863... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $150.36 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae (71.0%). Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerFannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae71%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 71% of our mortgage loans were sold directly to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or into securities backed by Ginnie Mae, and 27% were sold to one other major financial entity'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -2.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $150.36 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae (71.0%). Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $140.23. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $163.64 (+8.8% upside). Prior stop was $140.23. Stop-loss: $140.23.
Concentration risk — Customer: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae (71.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.4/10.
D.R. Horton, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.4 (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover DHI with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $165.
What does D.R. Horton, Inc. do?D.R. Horton is the largest U.S. homebuilder by homes closed, operating in 126 markets across 36 states through...
D.R. Horton is the largest U.S. homebuilder by homes closed, operating in 126 markets across 36 states through homebuilding (~92% of FY2025 revenues of $34.3B), rental, lot development (62% stake in Forestar), and financial services segments. In FY2025, the company closed 84,863 homes at an average price of $370,400; DHI Mortgage originated 68,982 mortgage loans and sells substantially all to third-party purchasers.