D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $151.07 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).
D.R. Horton is the largest U.S. homebuilder by homes closed, operating in 126 markets across 36 states through homebuilding, rental, lot development (Forestar), and financial services. Homebuilding drove 92% of $34.3B fiscal 2025 revenues, closing 84,863 homes at a $370,400... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $151.07 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 42d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About D.R. Horton, Inc.
About D.R. Horton, Inc.
D.R. Horton closed 84,863 homes in fiscal 2025, generating consolidated revenues of $34.3 billion — 92% from homebuilding and the remainder from rental, lot development, and financial services. The company operates across 126 markets in 36 states and has been the largest US homebuilder by volume every year since 2002, having closed more than 1.2 million homes in its 47-year history.
Homebuilding revenue is transactional — paid at closing — with products spanning entry-level, move-up, active adult, and luxury price points from $250,000 to over $1,000,000. Approximately 84% of fiscal 2025 home sales revenue came from single-family detached homes, with attached homes comprising the remainder. Land and lots are acquired primarily through non-recourse purchase contracts, limiting capital at risk to earnest money deposits. DHI Mortgage provided financing for 81% of D.R. Horton homebuyers in fiscal 2025, originating or brokering 68,982 loans; substantially all are sold to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae-backed securities after origination. Forestar Group Inc., of which D.R. Horton owns 62%, sold 14,240 lots in fiscal 2025, with 83% going to D.R. Horton homebuilding, supporting lot supply continuity. Rental operations closed 3,460 single-family and 2,947 multi-family units in fiscal 2025.
Show full overview
DHI Mortgage's secondary market is heavily concentrated with government-sponsored entities: approximately 71% of mortgage loans originated in fiscal 2025 were sold to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae-backed securities, and 27% to one other major financial entity. The company's $1.4 billion committed mortgage repurchase facility — the primary warehouse line — matures May 6, 2026, making near-term renewal a live operational item. An 18% contract cancellation rate in fiscal 2025 signals ongoing buyer sensitivity to mortgage rate levels.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
From D.R. Horton, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-09Recent Developments — D.R. Horton, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS DR Horton (DHI) faces target cuts from Wells Fargo and Barclays amid housing weakness - MSN — MSN negative
- NEWS D.R. Horton Inc (DHI) Stock Up 5.8% but GF Value Says Overvalued -- GF Score: 94/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Evercore ISI raises D.R. Horton stock price target on margin beat - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS BofA raises D.R. Horton stock price target on margin strength - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS DR Horton Inc Stock (DHI) Opened Up by 8.47% on Apr 21: Facts Behind the Movement - TradingKey — TradingKey positive
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMcounterpartyone other major financial entity27%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 71% of our mortgage loans were sold directly to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or into securities backed by Ginnie Mae, and 27% were sold to one other major financial entity'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -2.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $151.07 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77. Prior stop was $142.61. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $148.85 (-1.5% upside). Prior stop was $142.61. Stop-loss: $142.61.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
D.R. Horton, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.5 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover DHI with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $165.
What does D.R. Horton, Inc. do?D.R. Horton is the largest U.S. homebuilder by homes closed, operating in 126 markets across 36 states through...
D.R. Horton is the largest U.S. homebuilder by homes closed, operating in 126 markets across 36 states through homebuilding, rental, lot development (Forestar), and financial services. Homebuilding drove 92% of $34.3B fiscal 2025 revenues, closing 84,863 homes at a $370,400 average price. DHI Mortgage originated 68,982 loans and provided financing for 81% of its homebuyers.